The significant tropical system that has already soaked Florida and Louisiana is changing direction and poses a threat to inundate over 30 million Americans.
Meteorologists have issued warnings that an influx of tropical moisture could trigger hazardous flash floods from the Gulf Coast stretching to the Ohio Valley, affecting individuals in parts of 11 states from now through the weekend.
The current projections, known as spaghetti models, for this storm named Invest 93L, have adjusted its trajectory away from the East Coast. It is now forecasted to move through Louisiana and advance north into Arkansas by Saturday.
A spaghetti model shows the different possible paths a tropical storm or hurricane might take, based on predictions from multiple weather computer programs.
Each line represents one model’s guess about where the storm could go. If the lines are close together, it means most models agree on the path, and the prediction is more certain.
Although this weather system has not strengthened to become a named storm, which would have been Dexter, forecasters from AccuWeather say the storm is now tracking towards Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania.
AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said: ‘We’re increasingly concerned about the risk of flooding through the weekend as the moisture from this tropical rainstorm surges northward.’
Areas south and west of New Orleans are projected to be flooded with up to eight inches of rain before the storm moves into the heart of the country.
AccuWeather’s chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter noted that 2025 has already been a devastating year for flash floods, with reports already 70 percent above the 10-year average
The latest spaghetti models of this storm, called Invest 93L, have shifted its path away from the East Coast, predicting that it will barrel through Louisiana and head north into Arkansas by Saturday
Parts of Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, Virginia, Missouri, Michigan, and Wisconsin are also in the storm’s path as it tracks north this weekend.
AccuWeather’s chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter noted that 2025 has already been a devastating year for flash floods, and the new forecasts warn of heavy rainfall in cities like Chicago, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and St Louis starting Saturday.
‘This has been a tremendously impactful and dangerous year with flash flooding tragedies reported across the country,’ Porter said in a statement.
‘The number of flash flood reports this year to date has been a staggering 70 percent above the 10-year historical average,’ he revealed.
Two weeks ago, a fast-moving flash flood struck the Texas Hill Country, leaving at least 134 people dead and 97 still missing.
In New York City, heavy downpours sent filthy water gushing into crowded subway trains on July 14, throwing public transportation throughout the city into chaos.
‘Don’t let your guard down. People should be prepared to move to higher ground if they receive a flash flood warning, especially in low-lying campgrounds, areas near creeks and streams, and other flood-prone areas,’ Porter warned Thursday.
‘People across parts of Iowa and Illinois to the Ohio Valley and Appalachians need to be prepared for the risk of flash flooding. Some areas could receive four to eight inches of rainfall by Monday night,’ the chief meteorologist added.
Areas south and west of New Orleans are projected to be flooded with up to eight inches of rain before the storm moves into the heart of the country
The new forecasts warn of heavy rainfall in cities like Chicago, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and St Louis starting Saturday
The AccuWeather team added that some of the areas predicted to be in the new path of the tropical rainstorm have already been saturated by rounds of downpours in recent weeks.
Having saturated ground means the soil can’t absorb much more water. In a major rainstorm, this leads to increased chances for flooding, landslides, and more strain on roads, bridges, and buildings that may sustain damage from the weakened ground.
Forecasters are also warning that there could be more rounds of ‘life-threatening flash flooding this weekend into early next week.’
This will be the case in areas where rainfall rates reach one to three inches per hour during the storm.
Levi Cowan, the creator of the latest spaghetti model, is a meteorologist with a PhD in meteorology from Florida State University, specializing in tropical weather.
His website, Tropical Tidbits, aggregates spaghetti models from multiple reputable forecasting sources, such as the National Weather Service’s Global Forecast System and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
These models all show possible storm paths and are frequently updated during hurricane season, making spaghetti lines a valuable tool for tracking major storms and warning residents in harm’s way.
The forecast in the Gulf of America (formerly the Gulf of Mexico) isn’t getting any better heading into next week.
AccuWeather said that they’re already tracking a new tropical development along the Gulf states starting Monday July 21.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting an ‘above average’ season that will likely result in more named storms than there were in 2024, when 18 such storms were tracked.
Overall, NOAA is predicting up to 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes affecting the US this year.
