Rep. Mike Lawler’s bid for another term against Democrat Cait Conley has shifted into true battleground territory, with an independent election analyst now labeling the New York contest a “toss-up” in a ratings update released Thursday.
The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics had previously placed the race in New York’s competitive 17th Congressional District in the “lean Republican” column, citing Lawler’s strong wins in both 2022 and 2024 even as the district backed Democratic presidential candidates.
Now, the fight for the Hudson Valley-based House seat — one of the few true swing districts in the Empire State — has become one of New York’s marquee congressional races, with both parties viewing it as potentially decisive in the battle for control of Congress in 2027.
“Lawler, who holds a district based in Westchester and Rockland counties, drew what appeared to be his strongest potential challenger, [Army] veteran Cait Conley (D), in last month’s primary, and Conley also got the ballot line for the Working Families Party,” the Center for Politics’ “Sabato’s Crystal Ball” wrote in its analysis.
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, noted that Conley could benefit from Democrats avoiding a fractured race, saying, “The lack of a divided field may aid Conley in NY-17.”
In all, Thursday’s ratings change moved five US House races from “lean Republican” to “toss-up,” with Lawler’s New York seat joining contests in Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
Polling from partisan groups on both sides has suggested a tight race, with each camp pointing to surveys showing its candidate holding a narrow advantage.
One survey from the GOP-aligned firm co/efficient found Lawler ahead with 50% support compared with Conley’s 45%, putting the Republican incumbent up by just five percentage points.
A survey conducted by the political action committee for House Democrats had Conley leading Lawler 51% to 45%.
The Cook Political Report also recently rated the swing district contest a toss-up, while the Fox News Power Rankings moved the race from even to “Lean D.”
Lawler first took the seat in 2022 when he defeated former Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, then the chairman of the House Democratic Campaign Committee.
He handily won re-election in 2024, beating former lefty Rep. Mondaire Jones by six points despite the district going blue for Kamala Harris in the presidential election.
Conley, an Army veteran, won a five-way primary to win the Democratic nomination — a more mainstream or moderate challenger better suited to make a run in the suburban district that includes all or parts of Westchester, Putnam and Dutchess counties.
Lawler, a former state Assembly member, has fought to largely restore the state and local tax deduction on federal income tax returns and has been a staunch supporter of Israel.
Conley, a West Point Military Academy graduate, worked as director of counterterrorism on the National Security Council in the Biden administration. She previously served in the US Army and was deployed overseas six times.
Conley campaign spokeswoman Maddy Rosen said Conley would “fight to rein in Washington corruption” and usher in a “better, more affordable future for working families.
“Hudson Valley voters are clearly sick and tired of being thrown under the bus by party-first politician Mike Lawler, who votes with Donald Trump 100% of the time, and are eager for a leader like Cait Conley, whose entire career has been in service to the American people,” Rosen said.
“And unlike Mike, who spends his time cozying up to the corporations and special interests funding his campaign, Cait isn’t taking a single vote for granted.”
Lawler’s campaign manager Ciro Riccardi shrugged off the new analysis.
“Democrats threw everything at Mike Lawler in 2022 and 2024 and lost both times. Nothing has changed,” Riccardi said. “He leads Cait Conley by 5 in an independent survey, winning independents by 15 points, and has five times her cash in the bank. If [House Democratic Minority Leader] Hakeem Jeffries wants to set another fortune on fire in the Hudson Valley, be our guest. We’ll bring the marshmallows.”
Overall, the assessment gives Democrats a slight advantage to win back the House, though not as strongly as they did in President Trump’s first term in 2018, because of GOP-led redrawing of congressional districts in some states.
“Democrats remain favored to flip the House majority in November, but Republicans have a path, too,” Sabato’s Crystal Ball said.
“Republicans have 208 seats at least leaning to them, Democrats have 207, and there are now 20 Toss-ups. This gives both parties pathways to a majority, but we’d still expect Democrats to do better among the Toss-ups. Our best guess at this point would be Democrats winning a majority in the low-to-mid 220s.”
The Center for Politics at UVA was founded by professor Larry Sabato, its director, and the “Crystal Ball” analysis was started by and is named after him.
