Tropical Storm Bertha is gaining strength near the US Gulf Coast, raising concern across several states this week as forecasters warn New Orleans could face a direct strike.
Bertha, the second named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, formed off Florida’s coast at about 7pm ET on Monday. Forecast models now show the system curving toward Louisiana and Texas within the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm warnings are already in effect along parts of the Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama coasts, with meteorologists cautioning that Bertha could unleash life-threatening flooding, damaging winds and dangerous surf conditions for millions of residents.
Rainfall totals could climb as high as eight inches across the Gulf region, while sustained winds of 40 to 60mph are expected. Communities in the Florida Panhandle, along with major population centers including Mobile, New Orleans and Houston, are all bracing for impacts.
AccuWeather forecasters say Bertha could come ashore as early as Wednesday night, with the most likely landfall zone near eastern Orleans Parish. That area includes New Orleans East, the Lower Ninth Ward and neighborhoods near Lake Pontchartrain and the eastern reaches of the Mississippi River.
Still, Bertha’s precise track remains uncertain. Some forecast projections suggest the storm could linger over open water for longer, a scenario that may allow it to intensify further before landfall.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said in a statement: ‘A “hug-the-coast” scenario would keep overall winds weaker, however, heavy to flooding rainfall would increase along the central Gulf Coast before spreading inland as the storm loses wind intensity.’
AccuWeather meteorologists also warned that storm surge, the rapid rise in seawater pushed ashore by a storm, could reach up to three feet along a stretch of coastline extending more than 400 miles from Florida to western Louisiana.
Tropical Storm Bertha is expected to strengthen and strike the US Gulf Coast as soon as Wednesday night
Forecast models warn that Bertha could make landfall in New Orleans this week
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said: ‘A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.’
Officials added that the risk for boaters and those living along the coast could be severe this week, with Bertha capable of capsizing and damaging vessels as it strengthens and moves west.
As of 9am ET Tuesday morning, Tropical Storm Bertha had grown to carry sustained winds of 50mph and was just south of Florida’s Panama City.
Spaghetti models for Bertha show the storm twisting toward the northwest over the next day, moving closer to the Gulf Coast and spinning directly into Louisiana’s Black Bay.
A spaghetti model shows the different possible paths a tropical storm or hurricane might take, based on predictions from multiple weather computer programs.
Each line represents one model’s guess about where the storm could go. If the lines are close together, it means most models agree on the path, and the prediction is more certain.
Meteorologists noted that the Gulf may be spared a severe impact of the storm thanks to extreme wind shear blowing south from the northern US, which is slamming into Bertha and pushing thunderstorms away from the shore.
However, these winds may also push Bertha farther south, giving the relatively weak tropical storm a chance to strengthen into a bigger storm by using the warm waters of the Gulf as fuel.
Pictured: Tropical Storm Bertha forming in the Gulf of America
Pictured: Locals fill sandbags ahead of Tropical Storm Bertha’s landfall at Morris FX Jeff Sr Park in Algiers, New Orleans
‘That would likely allow the storm to strengthen much more because its center would remain over the warm waters of the open Gulf for a longer period,’ DaSilva added in a statement.
‘Strengthening to perhaps a high-end tropical storm or hurricane would be possible in this case.’
This potential storm path would likely take Bertha toward the Texas coast, putting several communities which recently dealt with deadly flash floods in danger yet again.
AccuWeather Meteorologist Breanna Grill added: ‘The Texas Hill Country may be especially vulnerable to downpours due to saturated ground and infrastructure damaged by the catastrophic flooding last week.’
One year ago, the Texas Hill Country was devastated by a Fourth of July flood which killed over 130 people, including many young children at a local summer camp.
Tropical Storm is expected to cause rising sea levels of up to three feet over a 400-mile stretch from Florida to Louisiana
Residents made sandbags ahead of Tropical Storm Bertha at Morris FX Jeff Sr Park in Algiers, New Orleans on July 20
The National Weather Service has warned that flash flooding is expected wherever Bertha strikes this week, particularly in urban areas.
Flash flooding is a sudden, rapid flooding that happens within a few minutes to a few hours during heavy rain.
According to the NWS, it often occurs when water rises quickly in low-lying areas, streams, or in cities where it cannot drain away fast enough.
This often catches people by surprise with little or no warning to get to safety. Forecasters have warned that this makes flash flooding one of the most dangerous types of flooding.
