More than half of Americans believe President Trump would refuse to accept a Republican defeat in November, according to a new poll.
The Our News Outlet/YouGov survey also found widespread uncertainty over whether Trump’s support is helping or hurting his party’s efforts to retain control of Congress.
Fifty-two percent of respondents said Trump would not accept the election results, while only 23 percent believed he would. A further 25 percent said they were unsure.
The YouGov survey was conducted from October 2 to 5 among 1,053 adult US citizens. It reported a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
With less than a month remaining before Election Day, Democrats are leading Republicans by roughly eight points in national polling for the congressional midterms.
RealClearPolitics’ polling average on October 6 put Democrats at 50.4 percent and Republicans at 42.2 percent, giving the party seeking control of the House an 8.2-point lead.
The results have renewed questions about Trump’s willingness to accept an electoral defeat, following his refusal to concede the 2020 presidential election to former President Joe Biden and his subsequent efforts to overturn the outcome.
Americans were far more united on what Trump should do if Republicans lose Congress. Seventy-four percent said he should accept the result, including 72 percent of Republicans.
The YouGov survey found that 52 percent of respondents did not believe Trump would accept a Republican defeat in the November 3 midterms, compared with 23 percent who believed he would.
The findings have renewed questions about Trump’s willingness to accept an electoral defeat after he refused to concede the 2020 presidential election to former President Joe Biden and sought to overturn the results.
Trump has urged voters to view November’s election as a referendum on his presidency. He has repeatedly told supporters to “pretend” he is on the ballot while warning that Republicans must turn out in force to keep control of Congress.
The poll indicates that approach may be counterproductive.
Forty-nine percent of respondents said Trump was hurting the Republican Party’s chances of retaining control of Congress, compared with 20 percent who said he was helping—a 29-point difference.
Among those planning to vote for a Democratic House candidate, 84 percent said Trump was hurting the Republicans’ prospects.
In recent weeks, the president has campaigned for a series of Republican candidates, appearing with Texas Senate hopeful Ken Paxton, Oklahoma gubernatorial nominee Mike Mazzei, Alabama gubernatorial candidate Tommy Tuberville, Ohio Senator Jon Husted and Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts.
He also campaigned in South Carolina for Senator Darline Graham, who was appointed to the seat following the death of her brother, Lindsey, in July and later won the Republican nomination in an August runoff.
Nearly half of respondents, 49 percent, said Trump was hurting the GOP’s prospects in November, while only 20 percent said he was helping.
President Trump campaigns alongside South Carolina Senator Darline Graham.
President Trump campaigns in Texas with Attorney General Ken Paxton.
When asked who would bear the most responsibility for a Republican defeat, 40 percent of YouGov respondents identified Trump.
A quarter were unsure, while nine percent cited outside economic factors, six percent Republican candidates and five percent Democratic campaigning.
Republican candidates across the country are quietly scrubbing Trump’s name and image from their campaign websites after winning their primaries.
Florida gubernatorial nominee Byron Donalds, a close Trump ally, removed multiple references to the president, a photograph of the pair and a section titled ‘Enact the Trump Agenda’, shifting the focus to affordability and insurance costs.
Georgia gubernatorial nominee Rick Jackson and several congressional candidates have also toned down their references to Trump.
Trump dangled the prospect of a $5,000 dividend for Americans if Republicans retain control, pitching the proposed payment as another reason for voters to back the GOP in November
Florida gubernatorial nominee Byron Donalds, one of Trump’s close allies, removed multiple references to the president on his campaign website
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Georgia Republican gubernatorial nominee Rick Jackson also toned down his campaign site’s references to Trump since securing his nomination
Economic anxiety may be another challenge for Republicans.
Thirty-nine percent of respondents expected to be financially worse off if the GOP retained control of Congress, compared with 23 percent who thought they would be better off.
Under Democratic control, they were evenly split, with 28 percent expecting their finances to improve and 28 percent expecting them to get worse.
Democrats were also more trusted to make families financially better off, by 35 percent to 29 percent. Another 29 percent trusted neither party.
If control were split between the parties, 43 percent expected their finances to remain unchanged.
The poll also found Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was the official respondents most wanted to leave the administration next. He was named by 20 percent, ahead of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr on 11 percent.
However, only 11 percent thought Hegseth would actually be the next to go.
The poll also examined attitudes toward Trump’s administration, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth topping the list of officials wanted to leave next. Twenty percent said Hegseth should be the next to go
FBI Director Kash Patel was named by eight percent
However, only 11 percent thought Hegseth would actually be the next to go.
FBI Director Kash Patel was named by eight percent, 16 percent believed no senior official would leave, and 51 percent were unsure.
Kentucky Representative Thomas Massie filed articles of impeachment against Hegseth last month over the administration’s handling of the war with Iran.
Massie has emerged as one of Trump’s most outspoken GOP critics, challenging the administration’s military actions and Hegseth’s leadership at the Pentagon.
House Speaker Mike Johnson dismissed the effort as a ‘stunt’ and said Hegseth had done an ‘extraordinary job’.
Vice President JD Vance has fueled speculation about a potential 2028 presidential bid, but insists he will not make a decision about his political future until after November’s midterm elections
Rubio has played down speculation that he could challenge Vance for the Republican presidential nomination, saying he has no current plans to run for the White House
The survey also looked ahead to 2028, asking Republicans and Republican-leaning independents whom Vice President JD Vance should choose as his running mate if he seeks the White House.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio was the choice of 33 percent, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis on 13 percent, while 34 percent were unsure.
Rubio also led when respondents were asked whom they expected Vance to pick, on 22 percent to DeSantis’s eight, though 55 percent did not know.
Vance has fueled speculation about a potential 2028 presidential bid, but insists he will not make a decision about his political future until after November’s midterm elections.
Rubio has ruled out challenging VanceRubio has played down talk that he could challenge Vance for the Republican nomination.
‘If JD Vance runs for president, he’s going to be our nominee, and I’ll be one of the first people to support him,’ he told Vanity Fair in December.
Trump has floated the idea of the two men forming a ‘dream team’, although neither has announced plans to run.
Vance will likely begin deciding when to launch a campaign after this November’s midterm elections.
Senator Ted Cruz of Texas has been contemplating a challenge to Vance, even criticizing him at times.
