New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat leading one of the nation’s bluest states, is facing fresh warning signs ahead of November after a new poll found her pro-Trump Republican challenger within competitive range.
The survey shows Hochul ahead of Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman by just four points, 47 percent to 43 percent, with another 10 percent of registered voters still undecided.
Red Oak Strategic, which conducted the poll for a pro-Blakeman super PAC, found the governor’s image underwater: 38 percent of respondents viewed Hochul favorably, while 58 percent viewed her unfavorably.
The findings also suggest skepticism about her future in office, with only 33 percent of voters saying Hochul — who has been endorsed by socialist and newly aligned ally Zohran Mamdani — deserves a second full term.
Blakeman, by contrast, posted a more positive rating, with 30 percent of voters viewing him favorably and 23 percent unfavorably, according to The New York Post.
One of the sharpest danger signs for Hochul, who became governor in 2021 after Andrew Cuomo resigned, is her standing with independents. Among those voters, Blakeman leads by 21 points, 54 percent to 33 percent.
Still, Hochul retains a major structural advantage: money. Between her campaign account and the New York State Democratic Party, she has a combined $43 million available to spend.
Her last statewide race offered an early glimpse of Republican strength in an otherwise reliably Democratic state. In 2022, Hochul defeated former Congressman and current EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin by just six points, as traditionally liberal areas underperformed during the midterm year of Joe Biden’s presidency.
Liberal New York Governor Kathy Hochul could potentially lose the deep blue state in November after a recent poll shows her pro-Trump challenger within striking distance
A survey showed Hochul leading Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (pictured) by just four points, 47-43. Ten percent of registered voters are still undecided
Kamala Harris defeated Donald Trump by 12 points in the state in the 2024 presidential election in a state where Democrat registration doubles the GOP.
However, the 2026 election could see similar apathy from Democrats, as Red Oak shows just 44 percent of Dems excited about the election, as opposed to 73 percent of Republicans.
The Daily Mail has reached out to both the Hochul and Blakeman campaigns for comment.
Blakeman, who has cast himself as a bulwark against the liberal policies of urban Democrats, criticized Hochul as a ‘failure’ when launching his campaign last December.
‘I´m running for office to make people more prosperous, to make them safer and to make New Yorkers happy again,’ said Blakeman, the Nassau County executive.
He was initially set for a primary fight with Trump favorite Congresswoman Elise Stefanik before she dropped out, though Trump had said he endorsed both candidates.
Blakeman, 70, now has Trump’s full endorsement and later attended Game 3 of the NBA Finals with the President at Madison Square Garden.
As the county executive, Blakeman has pushed through a policy that bans transgender athletes from using county sports facilities, created a volunteer law enforcement unit that his critics have labeled a militia and directed county detectives to work alongside federal authorities in Trump´s immigration crackdown.
Blakeman, 70, now has Trump’s full endorsement and later attended Game 3 of the NBA Finals with the President at Madison Square Garden
Socialist New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani endorsed Hochul – known as a moderate before cozying up to the left-winger ahead of his mayoral race – for reelection in February
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Nassau’s first Jewish county executive, he also signed a local ban on wearing face masks in public except for health or religious reasons, a measure that critics complain is aimed at cracking down on pro-Palestine demonstrations.
Blakeman cruised to victory in his election to a second term in November.
Previously, he served in the Hempstead Town Council and held an appointed post as the commissioner of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.
Former Gov. George Pataki was the state´s last Republican governor, leaving office about two decades ago.
Blakeman has suggested he could appeal to Democrat voters across the state.
He told Politico: ‘In a county that has 110,000 more registered Democrats, I won a landslide victory with a majority of over 36,000 votes. So I think that demonstrates that I have the ability to get votes from people that you need to have on your side if you’re going to win a statewide election in New York.
Mamdani endorsed Hochul – known as a moderate before cozying up to the left-winger ahead of his mayoral race – for reelection in February.
In an op-ed in The Nation, Mamdani, a Democrat, noted his political differences with the governor but wrote that he’s ‘come to trust Governor Hochul as someone willing to engage in an honest dialogue that leads to results.’
The endorsement further solidifies the alliance between two leaders at opposite ends of the Democratic political spectrum, with Mamdani a young democratic socialist who rode into office promising transformative change and Hochul a centrist, self-described ‘mom governor’ from Buffalo.
The governor supported Mamdani for mayor, lending him some establishment credibility during his campaign, and has found common ground with him on shared priorities of affordability and child care.
But she’s broken with the mayor on other elements of his agenda, including his calls to raise taxes on the wealthy, while positioning herself as a moderate check on his budding administration.
Hochul expressed gratitude for Mamdani’s partnership in a statement, writing ‘I know that he´ll stand strong alongside me as we fight against Donald Trump´s attacks on this state.’
