Nithya Raman has opened a significant lead over Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass in the city’s mayoral runoff, according to a new poll.
The challenger leads Bass by 11 points with fewer than six weeks remaining before voters head to the polls, the UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times survey found.
Among likely voters, 39% said they support Raman, compared with 28% for Bass, according to the poll released Wednesday morning.
However, 33% of likely voters remain undecided, leaving substantial room for the contest to shift before the Nov. 3 election.
Bass’ campaign dismissed the results as an “outlier,” arguing that other recent surveys have shown a far closer race.
“One outlier poll which got the June primary wrong isn’t reflective of the energy we see when talking to voters every day and what every other poll indicates — this is going to be a close race,” campaign spokesman Alex Stack told the California Post.
The survey questioned 2,150 likely Los Angeles voters online between Sept. 15 and Sept. 20. According to the Times, it has a margin of error of approximately 3 percentage points.
The latest figures represent a sharp shift from the June primary, when Bass led the field with 34% of the vote and Raman finished second with 29%.
Bass’ campaign cited several other recent polls that showed a much narrower gap between the candidates.
An August survey commissioned by Neighborhoods for a Better L.A., an independent group supporting Bass, found the mayor leading Raman, 41% to 35%.
A September poll commissioned by Estamos con Nithya, an outside group supporting Raman, initially put Bass at 38% and Raman at 37%—a result within the survey’s 3.7-point margin of error.
Raman’s own internal poll, conducted in early September, showed her ahead of Bass, 44% to 39%, while 17% of respondents remained undecided.
The latest survey also revealed a serious challenge for Bass’ campaign: 63% of likely voters said they viewed the mayor unfavorably, while just 28% viewed her favorably.
That unfavorable rating gives Bass a substantial image problem heading into the final weeks of the runoff.
Raman remains a divisive figure, but her ratings are considerably stronger. Forty percent of likely voters view her favorably, compared with 39% who view her unfavorably, while 21% have no opinion.
Bass has faced criticism over her response to the devastating 2025 Palisades fire. In the new poll, 56% of likely voters rated her handling of the disaster as poor or very poor, while only 14% rated it good or excellent.
At the same time, Raman has been strengthening her support among voters on the political left.
The Los Angeles chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America endorsed Raman earlier this month. Raman has been a longtime DSA member, and the group has made electing a democratic socialist mayor one of its major objectives.
The California Post has also highlighted Raman’s record of opposing portions of Los Angeles’ anti-camping law and voting against some LAPD spending—positions that are increasingly central to the bitter runoff campaign.
The Los Angeles Police Protective League, which has endorsed Bass, recently released an ad criticizing Raman for opposing restrictions on homeless encampments near schools.
One of the biggest wild cards is the army of voters who backed reality TV star Spencer Pratt in June.
Pratt captured 26% of the primary vote, but 63% of his supporters remain undecided between Bass and Raman, according to the new poll.
Among those who have picked a candidate, 22% favor Bass and 16% favor Raman.
The poll also exposed a striking generational split. Raman commands 66% support among likely voters ages 18 to 29, compared with just 4% for Bass. Among voters 30 to 39, Raman leads 64% to 12%.
Bass’ strongest group is voters 65 and older, where she leads Raman 41% to 21%.
The poll lands just as voting is about to begin, with Los Angeles County set to start mailing ballots Oct. 1 ahead of the Nov. 3 election.
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