Crime in New York City is not as simply “down” as some upbeat headlines suggest — even if parts of the city’s business establishment appear eager to embrace that reassuring narrative, On The Money has learned.
Prominent voices in the business community have pointed to declines in select crime categories as evidence that New York remains safe for employees, companies and entrepreneurs. There is some basis for that argument: Murders have fallen nearly 50% over the past 16 years and are almost 34% lower than they were two years ago.
Shooting incidents have also dropped, falling roughly 27% from two years ago and more than 50% since 2012, near the end of Mike Bloomberg’s tenure as mayor.
Still, those figures do not capture the full public-safety picture. Felonious assault complaints are nearly 77% higher than they were 16 years ago and about 1% above where they stood two years ago. Transit crime remains elevated, up 7% from 2010 and 1.2% over the past two years. Grand larceny has eased recently, but it is still 22% higher than during the Bloomberg era.
Other trends are even more alarming: Reported rapes have risen 4.6% over the past year, while hate crimes are up more than 6%.
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The gap between the optimistic messaging and the underlying data was flagged to me by a senior litigator at a major Manhattan law firm, a former Justice Department official under George W. Bush who is deeply familiar with the NYPD’s weekly CompStat crime reports.
“The city also has two glaring problems: an epidemic of rape and hate crimes AKA criminal antisemitism,” the source told me. “Over the past two years, rape is up more than 30%, and 73% since 2010.”
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“Yes, the murder rate has dramatically declined. Ditto shooting incidents,” he added. “But those figures only tell part of the story.”
To be clear, I get why city business leaders are looking at the proverbial glass half filled. It’s no fun running a company under the yoke of Zohran Mamdani’s incompetent, socialist mayoralty that seeks to tax anything that moves to fund his ever-growing welfare state.
Looking at the bright side of crime numbers is also a great way to persuade more businesses from fleeing to places where the homeless don’t crowd our sidewalks and you don’t get mugged when taking the family to dinner.
But a more realistic crunching of the numbers suggests that business leaders are merely looking for silver linings in numbers that still show New York is a dangerous place to live and do business in.
On The Money is all mostly about money, of course, but crime has traditionally been one of the biggest headwinds for the economy of the city. Faulty budgeting was the root cause of the city’s financial crisis and near bankruptcy of the 1970s, but the huge uptick in crime caused millions of middle class, tax-paying New Yorkers to flee to the suburbs.
Likewise, the strides against crime made by Rudy Giuliani when he was mayor and carried over during the Bloomberg years saw a business renaissance here in the city. Taxpayers were moving to the city, not fleeing, as the recent “millionaire exodus” study published by the Citizens Budget Commission pointed out.
Steve Fulop, the CEO of the Partnership for NYC, the city’s leading business advocacy group, tells me “crime statistics don’t move in a straight line, but the multiyear trend remains favorable, and murder, the most serious indicator of overall trend, is down.
“Beyond the numbers, business sentiment on public safety is also positive, which reflects the job Commissioner Tisch is doing and her regular, direct engagement with our members.”
It’s hard to dispute that NYPD chief Jessica Tisch is doing yeoman’s work despite some formidable obstacles, including a mayor who thinks sidewalk homelessness is a right and local DAs who believe the best way to reduce crime is to no longer enforce the laws. Let’s not forget that Jay Clayton, President Trump’s US Attorney for the Southern District of Manhattan has also embarked on a sweeping crackdown on violent criminals here in the city and it’s having an impact.
That said, the numbers don’t lie. NYC is a dangerous place, and the question business people will be asking increasingly: Is it worth the cost of doing business here?
