The future of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) chief is uncertain today following a stern rebuke from Keir Starmer against the fiscal watchdog.
During a press conference, the Prime Minister criticized the OBR for a ‘significant error’ related to a Budget leak and called into question the judgment of the independent organization.
This afternoon, Rachel Reeves is anticipated to receive a report concerning the unintentional release of crucial documents.
Tensions have been further inflamed by the OBR’s disclosure of sensitive information, specifically its communication to Ms. Reeves indicating there was no deficit in public finances.
This revelation has sparked widespread outrage, with critics accusing Reeves of misleading the public by exaggerating financial issues, ostensibly to prepare them for substantial tax hikes.
Richard Hughes, the head of the OBR, expressed his embarrassment over the leak last week and stated he would step down if he no longer had the support of the Chancellor and Members of Parliament.
The Chancellor has offered only lukewarm support for Richard Hughes amid Treasury anger at the Budget leak and revelations about when she was told there was no hole in the public finances
Keir Starmer used a press conference to jibe at the ‘significant error’ over the Budget leak and question the judgment of the independent body
Kemi Badenoch insisted the Chancellor must not sack the OBR chief
Sir Keir again kept referring to the OBR’s £16billion productivity downgrade this morning – but as this chart shows the full economic forecast actually left Ms Reeves with £16billion more to play with than in March
The departure of the OBR head could risk spooking markets in the wake of the Budget. There would also be a danger to Downing Street from Mr Hughes being free to speak his mind about the Budget process.
Former national cyber security boss Ciaran Martin has been drafted in to advise on the process, although it is thought to have been human error rather than hacking.
Sir Keir said today: ‘I’m not going to suggest that what happened last week, which was the entire Budget being published before the Chancellor got to her feet, was not anything other than a serious error.
‘This was market sensitive information. It was a massive discourtesy to parliament. It’s a serious error, there’s an investigation that’s going on.
‘But as for the OBR itself, I’m very supportive of the OBR for the reasons I’ve set out – vital for stability, vital and integral to our fiscal rules, which I’ve said a number of times are ironclad.’
Sir Keir also vented frustration at the OBR’s decision to do a long-term productivity review now – although the impact was more than offset by other forecasting changes.
‘Well, I’m not angry at the productivity review,’ the premier said.
‘It’s a good thing that reviews like that have done from time to time. I’m bemused.
‘Myself, I feel that doing at the end of last government and before we started might have been a good point to do a productivity review so we could know exactly what we were confronted with.
‘Doing it 15, 16, months into a government, it had to be done sometime, but picking up the tab for the last government’s failure – it’s been the nature of the beast, frankly, for the last 16 months, but it was given a special emphasis in that exercise.
‘I’m not angry, I’m just bemused as to why it wasn’t done at the end of the government rather than done now, but I’m not saying that these reviews aren’t important et cetera.’
Ms Reeves was left wriggling in interviews yesterday as she was confronted with details of how she talked up the problems in the government’s books, even after the OBR had advised her they were in fact forecasting a small surplus.
The timetable was spelled out in a letter from the independent body to MPs, published on Friday.
That drew a rare public rebuke from the Treasury, which said it had been assured such information would not ‘usually’ be made public in future.
Asked about the fate of the OBR chief yesterday, Ms Reeves said: ‘Look, there is no one who is a bigger supporter of the office for Budget Responsibility than me.
‘I reappointed Richard Hughes in the summer to strengthen the powers of the OBR…
‘It was clearly serious. It was clearly a serious breach of protocol.’
After the OBR letter was published on Friday, a Treasury spokesman said: ‘We are not going to get into the OBR’s processes or speculate on how that relates to the internal decision making in the build up to a Budget but the Chancellor made her choices to cut the cost of living, cut hospital waiting lists and double headroom to cut the cost of our debt.
‘We take Budget security extremely seriously and believe it’s important to preserve a private space for Treasury–OBR policy and forecast discussions, so we welcome the OBR’s confirmation that this will not become usual practice.’
Ms Reeves was left wriggling in interviews yesterday as she was confronted with details of how she talked up the problems in the government’s books, even after the OBR had advised her they were in fact forecasting a small surplus
