Oil Prices Surge, Posing Fresh Challenge for Trump 12 Days Before Midterms

Oil prices surged on Thursday after a report said Donald Trump and Israel had prepared plans for fresh strikes against Iran once the midterm elections conclude.

Brent crude climbed 2.68 percent to $111.74 a barrel. With the midterm vote just 12 days away, the president is under growing pressure to bring down fuel costs.

Rising gasoline prices have intensified the cost-of-living crisis, raising the prospect that Republicans could lose control of both the House and Senate in less than two weeks.

US and Israeli military commanders have developed plans for a “short but intensive” campaign aimed at Iran’s nuclear facilities, energy infrastructure and missile and drone capabilities, The New York Times reported.

Trump has reportedly considered using the 22,000-pound GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb—better known as the “Mother of All Bombs”—against Pickaxe Mountain, a nuclear facility located deep beneath granite.

Officials say the president is particularly drawn to the weapon in part because of its striking nickname.

Some US planners believe three days of intense bombardment could push Iran’s already weakened economy to breaking point and pressure Tehran to abandon its nuclear ambitions after almost eight months of war.

Trump said earlier this month that he would not launch an attack before the election. The full US military force, including three aircraft carriers and thousands of Marines, is not expected to be in position until early November.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth traveled to Israel this week to discuss the proposed strikes with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

However, there is no certainty that the operation will proceed. Trump has repeatedly halted planned combat missions, including one that was called off at the last minute earlier this month.

Iranian officials have promised a fierce response, warning that Tehran could expand its targets beyond oil tankers and energy facilities to include data centers and undersea internet cables.

“Our attacks will be more fierce, creative and different,” Mahdi Mohammadi, a senior adviser to Iran’s chief negotiator, warned.

Since the conflict began, Iran has contributed to severe disruption in global oil supplies by restricting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The narrow waterway carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and has been targeted with speedboats, mines and explosive drones.

One analyst in Tehran said Iran could respond to an attack on Pickaxe Mountain by striking major Saudi refineries, including facilities operated by Aramco. Such action, the analyst said, could drive energy prices higher and increase pressure on American voters.

The State Department on Wednesday ordered nonemergency government staff and their families out of Saudi Arabia, citing mounting attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militants on civilian targets.

The White House refused to discuss military planning, saying only that Trump is keeping every option open to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.

Some on Wall Street argue the hit to Americans’ wallets may be softer than in oil shocks of decades past.

‘$100 oil today is very different than $100 oil, you know, 20, 30 years ago,’ said David Wagner, head of equity at Aptus Capital Advisors.

He pointed to government figures showing gasoline swallowed roughly 5 percent of the average American’s disposable income a decade ago, around double its share today.