Global ocean temperatures have climbed to an unprecedented high, adding to concerns that a powerful Super El Niño is continuing to build, according to new climate data.
Figures from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) show that last month delivered the highest sea surface temperatures ever recorded for July.
A major driver of the record heat has been exceptionally warm water across the Tropical Pacific, the region where the El Niño weather pattern develops.
C3S says the super El Niño is already helping to intensify extreme ocean warming, with forecasts indicating that conditions could strengthen further in the months ahead.
Average global sea surface temperatures rose to 20.96°C (69.7°F), breaking the previous July record set in 2023.
Around Europe, the record-breaking warmth is triggering widespread strong to severe marine heatwaves, putting local ecosystems under mounting stress.
On land, Western Europe also endured its hottest June–July period on record, with average temperatures reaching a sweltering 21.62°C (70.9°F).
That was a striking 2.79°C (5°F) above the monthly average, surpassing the previous record from 2022 as the continent struggled through its fourth consecutive heatwave.
Global ocean temperatures have hit a record high in a worrying sign that the Super El Niño is strengthening
Last month was the hottest July in Western Europe ever recorded, with average air temperatures sitting at 21.62°C (70.9°F)
The El Niño Southern Oscillation is a naturally occurring weather cycle that alternates between hot and cold – La Niña – phases once every two to seven years.
During the hot – El Niño – phases, the trade winds that normally carry warm waters away from South America towards Australia slow or even reverse.
This prevents cold water from welling up and leads to a buildup of hot water near the surface in the equatorial and tropical Pacific Ocean.
Eventually, that hot water spreads out and raises global average temperatures, leading to severe weather disruption around the planet.
Scientists are now reporting that the SST in the Pacific and around the world is hotter than it has ever been for this time of the year.
And, the developing Super El Niño pattern shows no sign of slowing down.
Recently, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) predicted that El Niño is expected to steadily strengthen into a ‘strong’ event between August and October.
The WMO’s latest data forecasts that SST is likely to exceed 2.9°C (5.2°F) above the seasonal average in key regions.
Temperatures in Western Europe were a whopping 2.79°C (5°F) above the monthly average, shattering the previous record set in 2022
This comes as the latest climate models (pictured) show that the growing El Niño weather pattern continues to strengthen
This could make the growing weather pattern the most intense El Niño ever recorded.
El Niño only has an indirect effect on the UK’s weather, but global effects on this scale will have knock–on impacts.
The weather cycle triggers significantly enhanced global temperatures, with the worst effects usually being felt in the early months of next year.
This will also have a big impact on rainfall patterns between August and October this year.
Parts of the world, including the Horn of Africa, western North America, and parts of Central Asia, will see much wetter conditions and considerable risk of flooding.
Meanwhile, Northern Europe, most of Australia, the Indian subcontinent, and southern Central America will see much lower rainfall than average.
That warning comes as Europe and Asia are already facing one of the hottest and driest summers on record.
Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate at the European Centre for Medium–Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), says: ‘July 2026 was the third consecutive month of exceptional heat in western Europe, bringing the combined temperature for June and July to a new record for the region.
‘Persistent high–pressure systems trapped heat over western Europe; the extreme temperatures also amplified widespread drought.’
C3S data shows that ground moisture levels across Europe have plummeted, especially in France, Spain, parts of Germany and the UK.
In the UK, this has led to England and Wales experiencing the driest July in 190 years of Met Office records.
Most of England and Wales are now officially in drought, after receiving just 10 per cent of the monthly average rainfall.
Despite a few areas receiving brief rainfall earlier this week, parts of the UK have beaten their records for the longest period without rainfall.
Wisley in Surrey has now gone 51 days without a drop of rain, while Coningsby in Lincolnshire has gone 42 days as of July 7.
Across Europe, the consequences of this extreme heat and drought have been a surge in devastating wildfires, especially in France, Spain, and Greece.
In France, the European Forest Fire Information System had already recorded 341 square miles (91,024 hectares) of burned land by July 30.
Europe is already experiencing exceptionally low soil moisture and river flow levels, and El Niño is expected to produce even lower rates of rainfall
England and Wales have experienced their driest July in 190 years of records, receiving less than 10 per cent of the average rainfall for the month. Pictured: Richmond Park, London on August 6
That has passed the previous full–year record and stands over 6.2 times higher than the 20–year average.
In the worst affected areas of the Gironde region, over 162 square miles (42,000 hectares) of land has been destroyed – making it one of the largest forest fires since World War Two.
Laurence Rouil, Director of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service at ECMWF, says: Last month saw exceptional wildfire activity across western Europe, in terms of the area burnt and emissions.
‘Climate change is increasingly bringing the kinds of hot and dry conditions that favour large, high–intensity wildfires in southern Europe while extending the fire season northwards.’
