Women are currently the driving force behind Labor’s electoral strength, while men increasingly shift their support towards One Nation, distancing themselves from both major parties.
The latest findings from Roy Morgan highlight a growing gender divide, with Labor solidifying its dominance among female voters but losing traction with males.
In terms of a two-party preferred basis, Labor enjoys 61 percent backing from women, marking a 3.5-point increase over the past week, as the Liberal-National Coalition lags behind at just 39 percent.
This boost for Labor among women isn’t due to an increase in its primary vote, which has held steady at 32.5 percent. Instead, the lift comes from a swell in support for progressive and minor parties that tend to favor Labor through preferences.
The Greens have seen their support among women rise to 16.5 percent, marking a 1.5-point gain, while One Nation has surged 2.5 points to reach 19 percent.
Meanwhile, the Coalition’s primary vote among women has dropped significantly by 3.5 points to 21.5 percent, reinforcing Labor’s substantial lead.
Liberal and National support among women continues to weaken, reinforcing Labor’s hold on a two-party preferred basis.
Across the overall electorate, Labor’s primary support remains at 30 per cent.
Labor leads the Coalition with women by 61 to 39 on a two-party preferred basis (file)
The Coalition continues to slide, down 1.5 points to 22.5 per cent, with the Liberals sitting at 19.5 per cent and Nationals at just 3 per cent.
One Nation recorded the largest weekly gain, rising three points to 24.5 per cent.
The Greens’ support jumped to 2.5 per cent while Other Parties and Independents fell to 10.5 per cent.
On a two-party preferred basis using voters’ current intentions, Labor leads the Coalition 56–44, unchanged from last week.
Using last federal election preference distributions, Labor’s margin narrows but slightly improves, sitting at 54 per cent to 46 per cent.
Among men, the picture is starkly different.
Labor and the Coalition are now tied on a two-party basis at 50 per cent each, reflecting a four-point swing against Labor in one week.
Labor’s primary vote among men fell by one point to 28 per cent, as One Nation surged by 2.5 points to 29.5 per cent, overtaking every other party to become the most popular single choice for male voters.
Male voters shifted from Labor to One Nation, but remain tied with the Coalition in two party
Coalition support among men edged up to 23 per cent, while Other Parties and Independents dropped two points to 10.5 per cent.
The data shows male voters are abandoning Labor in favour of One Nation, rather than shifting back to the Coalition.
Despite Labor’s strong lead, government confidence remains low.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating rose 4.5 points to 65.5 this week, still far below the neutral mark of 100.
Only 26 per cent of Australians believe the country is heading in the right direction, while a stark 60.5 per cent say it’s on the wrong path.
Confidence is highest among Labor supporters, scoring 135 points, while Greens voters register at 88 points.
Coalition voters sit at 32.5, and One Nation’s supporters express the lowest confidence, just 10.5 points.
