Democratic Texas Senate contender James Talarico has opened up a narrow but attention-grabbing 3-point advantage over Republican Ken Paxton in a new survey, adding to growing GOP unease about what could become one of the most closely watched races in the Lone Star State.
A Fox News poll of registered voters released last week showed Talarico leading Paxton 51% to 48%. The same survey also pointed to a surprisingly tight governor’s race, with Republican Gov. Greg Abbott ahead of Democrat Gina Hinojosa by just one point, 50% to 49%.
Texas Democrats have spent roughly 30 years trying—and failing—to win a statewide contest, with the party’s long-running ambition to turn a US Senate seat blue coming closest in 2018. That year, Republican Sen. Ted Cruz narrowly survived a challenge from Beto O’Rourke, winning by about 2.5 percentage points.
This time, Democrats are betting that a favorable 2026 midterm environment, combined with Paxton’s political vulnerabilities, could finally give them a realistic path to victory in Texas.
Talarico also holds a slim 0.9-point lead over Paxton in the latest RealClearPolitics polling average, underscoring just how competitive the Texas Senate race has become.
To win back control of the Senate, Democrats need a net gain of four seats. Their main targets have typically included North Carolina, Maine, Ohio and Alaska, but none offers an easy pickup. Party strategists are also watching Michigan with concern, fearing they could be forced to defend a vulnerable seat there.
That makes keeping Texas competitive potentially crucial for Democrats searching for alternate routes to a Senate majority. The party is also showing unusual strength in Iowa’s Senate contest, another race drawing increased national attention.
Paxton, Texas’ attorney general, emerged from a hard-fought Republican primary against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, who warned throughout the campaign that Paxton could struggle with general election voters. In the end, Paxton secured the backing of President Trump, helping him consolidate support within the GOP.
The state AG had been indicted on securities fraud charges in 2015 before becoming Texas’ top prosecutor. Ultimately, he reached a pretrial diversion agreement to throw out those charges.
In 2023, he was impeached over allegations that he obstructed justice in that securities fraud case, made false statements against whistleblowers, gave preferential treatment to a donor, and misappropriated public resources, amongst other transgressions.
Paxton survived impeachment proceedings in the state Senate in a narrow 16–14 vote.
His former wife, Angela Allen, divorced him following revelations that he cheated on her. Among the accusations he faced was that he used his role as attorney general to aid real estate developer and campaign donor Nate Paul.
Paxton was also accused of pushing Paul’s company to hire a mistress of his.
To combat Talarico, Republicans have sought to paint him as a hardcore woke lefty, seizing on past comments where he suggested that God is nonbinary and that there are six sexes.
Fox News’ poll found that 59% of Texas voters have serious concerns about Paxton’s character, eclipsing the 47% who fear Talarico is too extreme.
The survey was conducted from July 23-27 and sampled 1,006 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
