The United States is down to roughly 1,000 missile interceptors, has shifted more than 30 warships away from the Pacific and still faces a $30 billion backlog in weapons promised to Taiwan, raising fresh concerns that the conflict with Iran is draining the very arsenal Washington built to deter China.
That pace of depletion has unsettled Pentagon officials focused on the Indo-Pacific, who are tracking shrinking US stockpiles as Beijing intensifies military and political pressure on Taiwan.
In December, China staged an extraordinary display of force, encircling Taiwan with naval vessels and military aircraft in what officials described as its largest exercise to date.
After the sweeping drills, Chinese forces expanded military facilities on disputed reefs in the South China Sea and escalated tensions with Taipei through more assertive coast guard patrols.
US intelligence officials have said Chinese President Xi Jinping has directed the People’s Liberation Army to be ready to carry out an invasion of Taiwan by 2027.
While current assessments do not indicate that Beijing is preparing an imminent attack, defense analysts warn that Xi’s reported deadline highlights a dangerous vulnerability as US weapons inventories come under strain.
Privately, the rapid drawdown has fueled mounting tension between President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, even as both have publicly maintained that America’s military reserves remain strong.
China’s President Xi Jinping gestures toward King Abdullah II of Jordan during a bilateral meeting at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, on 24 August
US Navy sailors load AIM–120 air–to–air missiles on a F/A–18E Super Hornet fighter jet aboard the USS Gerald R. Ford, lead ship in the Ford Class Aircraft Carriers
Hegseth reiterated this stance as recently as Monday, insisting military stocks remain fully capable.
‘We had plenty when we needed it, and we have plenty now and we have plenty when we’ll need them in the future, absolutely,’ Hegseth told reporters who questioned their military capacity.
Troops and hardware are being pulled out of the Indo-Pacific to feed Middle East operations regardless. The 30-plus warships now in the region were all originally earmarked for the Pacific, a US official says.
The most alarming shortfall in the US arsenal involves defensive interceptors – the vital shields needed to protect roughly two dozen American bases across Asia and safeguard tens of thousands of US troops stationed in Japan and South Korea.
The US has already expended most of its pre–Iran–war collection of Patriot and THAAD interceptors, according to figures published in late July by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and first reported by the Washington Post last week.
Roughly 1,000 Patriots and THAADs are left. They are purely defensive, meaning they can only absorb an attack, not answer one.
That limited defense pool creates a glaring disparity when measured against Beijing’s strike capabilities.
‘China has 3,000 ballistic missiles or more. So that’s just bad math,’ Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at the Washington think tank Defense Priorities, told the Post.
America’s military stockpiles are being dangerously depleted by the prolonged war in the Middle East, leaving terrifying gaps in the nation’s readiness for a potential war with China
The US Army conducting live fire tests of the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico
Mark Cancian, senior adviser at CSIS, told the newspaper: ‘They are the most critical because there are no good substitutes. When you run out of Patriots, when you’re out of THAADs, there’s no way you can stop missiles coming in.’
Offensive strike capabilities are suffering a similar strain.
More than 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles were fired in the first four weeks of the Iran war alone, and CSIS says that number has now passed 1,000 – wiping out a massive share of stockpiles from before the war estimated at between 3,100 and 4,500 missiles.
Other key long–range strike weapons are also running low.
April estimates from CSIS show the Pentagon has already burned through roughly a quarter of its prewar Joint Air–to–Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM) and up to three–quarters of its 90 Precision Strike Missiles.
Those staggering losses raise major red flags when stacked against potential war scenarios in the Pacific.
War–game simulations by CSIS reveal that a clash with China would burn through 5,000 long–range missiles in just four weeks – a staggering total that exceeds America’s entire prewar Tomahawk inventory.
The armaments crunch is also directly impacting Indo–Pacific allies facing mounting pressure from Beijing.
Donald Trump speaks to the press as Leavitt looks on at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland
Guided–missile destroyer USS Thomas Hudner (DDG 116) firing a Tomahawk land attack missile in support of Operation Epic Fury, from an undisclosed location on March 1
Pete Hegseth speaks on Thursday during an event to honor Marines who were serving during the 2021 Abbey Gate bombing at the Pentagon
Nearly $30 billion in approved military aid for Taiwan is stuck in limbo, including $882 million in Patriot missiles, data from the Taiwan Security Monitor shows.
‘It seems to me that the likelihood that [Taiwan is] going to get a whole 100 is pretty low. I think the number one priority for the United States, rightly, will be refilling its own stockpiles,’ said Kavanagh.
‘The United States probably also feels like it owes Gulf state allies some replenishment. The war on Iran is not over,’ she added.
The strain comes amid ongoing military posturing from Beijing, which in July celebrated its first known test of a sea–based nuclear–capable missile, further heightening tensions across the Pacific.
