On Saturday, Iran faced a pivotal moment as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed, concluding over 30 years of authoritarian leadership and triggering a leadership transition for which the regime had long been bracing.

An Arab diplomat informed The Times of Israel that Khamenei’s death represents a “massive blow” to Iran’s Islamic Republic. However, Tehran had anticipated such a possibility and had strategized to endure this scenario.

“At this juncture, mere survival would be seen as an achievement,” the diplomat remarked, referring to the regime’s stance in the wake of the U.S. and Israeli strikes across Iran.

The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) recently published a report detailing three potential paths for Iran post-Khamenei: a continuation of the regime with adjustments, a military takeover, whether overt or gradual, or a complete systemic collapse.

Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, was killed on Saturday in an Israeli military strike. (Image courtesy of the Office of the Supreme Leader of Iran via Getty Images)

CFR cautioned that even a leadership change at the top would not necessarily translate into meaningful political reform in the near term, given the regime’s deeply institutionalized power structure and its record of using force to maintain control.

The report notes that the real balance of power rests within a tight circle of clerical elites and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

It describes a likely “continuity” scenario as producing “Khamenei-ism without Khamenei,” in which a successor from within the regime preserves the ideological framework of the Islamic Republic while relying on established security institutions to preserve stability.

“The Islamic Republic’s constitution includes a succession process. The Assembly of Experts, a clerical body, is constitutionally charged with selecting the next supreme leader,” Jason Brodsky, policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), told Fox News Digital. 

“In the interim, should there be a leadership vacancy, an interim leadership council is formed comprised of the president, chief justice, and a member of the Guardian Council selected by the Expediency Council,” he added. “The IRGC is a key stakeholder in this process, and will heavily influence its outcome.”

Over the past three decades, the Bayt-e Rahbari, or the Office of the Supreme Leader, expanded into what a February report by UANI described as a “sprawling parallel state” operating alongside Iran’s formal institutions.

Large crowds gather at Enghelab Square in Tehran, Sunday, after Iranian state TV announced that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli strike. (Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty Images)

The analysis characterizes the Office as the regime’s “hidden nerve center,” extending control across the military, security establishment and major economic foundations in ways that make the system’s authority institutional rather than dependent on Khamenei’s physical presence.

“The supreme leader today is no longer just one man; he is represented through an all-encompassing institution that consolidates power, manages succession, and guarantees continuity,” the non-partisan policy organization said. “The Islamic Republic’s most enduring strength lies in this hidden architecture of control, which will continue to shape the country’s future long after Khamenei himself departs from the scene.”

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