Despite recent escalations by Iran in the Persian Gulf, many of the nations directly affected are choosing to exercise caution, prioritizing diplomacy over confrontation. These Gulf countries emphasize the importance of safeguarding their territories while avoiding any broader conflict that could threaten regional stability and disrupt global energy supplies.
During a press briefing with Fox News White House senior correspondent Peter Doocy, former President Donald Trump addressed the unexpected nature of Iran’s aggressive actions against neighboring states. “Nobody. Nobody. The greatest experts — nobody thought they were going to hit,” Trump remarked when questioned about Iranian strikes targeting Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait.
On March 1, a dramatic plume of smoke was seen rising from Abu Dhabi’s Zayed Port following an Iranian strike. This attack is part of Tehran’s larger missile and drone campaign in the Gulf region, which has resulted in the deaths of three people and injured 58 others in the UAE, according to Emirati authorities. These actions came in response to a U.S.-Israeli offensive that claimed the life of Iran’s supreme leader.
The conflict intensified after the United States and Israel targeted Iranian oil facilities earlier this month. In retaliation, Iran expanded its focus to include the Gulf’s energy infrastructure and vital shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) has documented at least 25 Iranian attacks on Gulf shipping and strategic strikes on energy installations since February 28.
Tehran widened the conflict after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities earlier this month, expanding retaliation to Gulf energy infrastructure and shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project.
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) recorded at least 25 Iranian attacks against shipping in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz since Feb. 28, as well as strikes targeting energy infrastructure across several Gulf states.
“Tehran targeted Gulf energy infrastructure and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz seeking to raise the costs of the war for the U.S. and its regional partners,” said Luca Nevola, ACLED’s senior analyst for Yemen and the Gulf.
Jacob Olidort, chief research officer at the America First Policy Institute, told Fox News Digital that, “Since Operation Epic Fury began, our Gulf partners have responded with an unprecedented unified front against threats posed by the Iranian regime,” he said, adding that their actions have focused on stopping attacks rather than expanding the war. “This reflects not just a desire to stabilize the region but also a recognition that the U.S. military’s success is what makes that possible.”
Foreign workers look at a tall plume of black smoke ascends following an explosion in the Fujairah industrial zone on March 3, 2026. Iran’s strikes on Gulf neighbours since February 28, following the U.S.-Israeli attack, forced the UAE to shut its airspace, blindsiding travellers who thought they were headed to one of the region’s safest holiday destinations. (Fadel Senna / AFP via Getty Images)
Salman Al-Ansari, a Saudi geopolitical researcher, told Fox News Digital that Riyadh is focusing on maintaining global market stability. “Riyadh is exercising maximum restraint at the moment, but the real question is how long that restraint can last,” Al-Ansari said.
Al-Ansari pointed to a long-standing Saudi strategic philosophy. “Over a hundred years ago, the founder of Saudi Arabia, King Abdulaziz Al Saud, said: ‘The living do not fight the dead.’ Perhaps Riyadh is following this doctrine, at least until further developments unfold,” he said.
Qatar has taken a similar approach. “The State of Qatar’s policies always seek to de-escalate conflicts,” a Qatari official told Fox News Digital “Qatar is not a party to this war, and we strongly believe that the violence must end through negotiations. At the same time. Qatar continues to defend its country and sovereignty following the Iranian attacks.”
Firefighters work in Muharraq, Bahrain, after reported Iranian strikes triggered a fire at fuel tanks near the airport, on Thursday, March 12, 2026. (Bahrain Information Ministry/Reuters)
Another factor shaping Gulf restraint is a regional policy of refusing to allow their territory to be used for attacks on Iran. Some U.S. military experts say the Gulf’s hesitation is also tied to long-standing concerns about Washington’s reliability in the region.
Vice Adm. Robert S. Harward, a former deputy commander of U.S. Central Command, told Fox News Digital that inconsistent U.S. policies have eroded trust among Gulf partners. “Our policies in the Middle East have been more cyclical than a revolving door,” Harward said. “We have failed to earn the trust and confidence of our Gulf partners over the last decade and a half. And that lack of trust and confidence has only exacerbated the threat from Iran to the region.”
The now retired Vice Adm. said Gulf governments are weighing the risks of escalation carefully. “As these countries consider whether to go on the offensive, they are worried about what happens when we leave,” he said. “Admittedly, these countries are challenged to defend themselves against a country of 90 million without us.”
Regional analysts say Gulf leaders are concerned that if even one country joins the fighting, the conflict could quickly engulf the region.
Abdullah Aljunaid, a Bahraini analyst, told Fox News Digital that if one member of the Gulf Cooperation Council enters the war, it could drag the entire bloc with it. “If any member of the GCC decided to join this offensive, it would obligate the rest of the GCC countries to join at the same time,” Aljunaid said.
The consequences could extend far beyond the battlefield. “You could imagine what the oil prices would be. We are definitely talking about north of $150 per barrel,” he claimed.
Iranian flags fly as fire and smoke from an Israeli attack on Sharan Oil depot rise, following Israeli strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, June 15, 2025. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters)
Aljunaid said Gulf leaders are also wary of open-ended military campaigns in the region. “Past experiences show that every time military action is initiated in the region, it never ends according to what was promised,” he said.
Instead, he said Gulf countries are focusing on defensive measures while quietly supporting diplomatic channels, including mediation efforts through Oman.
Lt. Gen. Richard Y. Newton III said Iran made a major strategic mistake by striking Gulf countries. “Iran made a strategic blunder by striking Gulf nations – our allies and friends – with ballistic missiles and drone attacks,” Newton told Fox News Digital.
The retired Air Force commander warned that attacks on key infrastructure such as oil fields or desalination plants could push Gulf states toward a more aggressive response.
“I’m inclined to believe there may potentially be one or two nations in the region inclined to join with the U.S. by going offensive against Iran,” Newton said. “That is certainly within the realm of possibility in the coming weeks.”
An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps speedboat sails in the Persian Gulf during an IRGC marine parade marking Persian Gulf National Day near the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Bushehr, Iran, on April 29, 2024. (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Newton added that the long-term objective for the U.S. and its partners should be preventing Iran from threatening regional stability and global shipping routes. “That includes achieving maritime dominance in the Persian Gulf and setting the conditions for safe passage for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz,” he said.
For now, however, Gulf leaders appear determined to contain the conflict rather than escalate it, even as Iranian strikes have already reached their territory.
The UAE did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
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