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The surge in tourists visiting Antarctica has been remarkable.
From less than 8,000 annually, approximately three decades ago, the number climbed to nearly 125,000 in 2023-24.
This upward trend is expected to continue in the future.
Unchecked growth in tourism could jeopardize the pristine environment that attracts visitors to Antarctica.

This would be detrimental for both tour operators and visitors, as well as for Antarctica and the global ecosystem.

Over the past two weeks, the nations that decide what human activities are permitted in Antarctica have convened in Italy.
The meeting incorporates discussions by a special working group that aims to address tourism issues.
It’s not easy to manage tourist visitors to a continent beyond any one country’s control. So, how do we stop Antarctica from being loved to death?

The answer may lie in economics.

Future visitor trends
We recently modelled future visitor trends in Antarctica.
A conservative scenario shows by 2033–34, visitor numbers could reach around 285,000.
Under the least conservative scenario, numbers could reach 450,000 — however, this figure incorporates pent-up demand from COVID-19 shutdowns that will likely diminish.
The vast majority of the Antarctic tourism industry comprises cruise-ship tourism in the Antarctic Peninsula.

A small percentage of visitors travel to the Ross Sea region and parts of the continent’s interior.

A large cruise ship in the ocean near an icy cliff.

The majority of tourism in Antarctica consists of cruise-ship visits to the Antarctic Peninsula. Source: Getty / Wolfgang Kaehler/LightRocket

Antarctic tourism is managed by an international set of agreements, together known as the Antarctic Treaty System, as well as the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators (IAATO).

The treaty system is notoriously slow-moving and riven by geopolitics, and IAATO does not have the power to cap visitor numbers.

Pressure on a fragile continent

About two-thirds of Antarctic tourists land on the continent.
The visitors can threaten fragile ecosystems by compacting soils, trampling fragile vegetation, introducing non-native microbes and plant species, and disturbing breeding colonies of birds and seals.
Even when cruise ships don’t dock, they can cause problems such as air, water and noise pollution — as well as anchoring that can damage the seabed.
Then there’s carbon emissions.

On average, each cruise ship passenger traveling to Antarctica generates between 3.2 to 4.1 tonnes of carbon emissions, excluding their journey to the embarkation point. This figure is comparable to the annual carbon output of an average individual.

Two penguins next to a camera on a tripod.

Tourism in Antarctica can compound damage from climate change, tipping delicate ecosystems into decline. Source: AAP / Mary Evans

Global warming caused by carbon emissions is damaging Antarctica. In the Peninsula region, glaciers and ice shelves are retreating and sea ice is shrinking, affecting wildlife and vegetation.

Of course, Antarctic tourism represents only a tiny fraction of overall emissions.
However, the industry has a moral obligation to protect the place that maintains it. And tourism in Antarctica can compound damage from climate change, tipping delicate ecosystems into decline.
Some operators use hybrid ships and less polluting fuels, and offset emissions to offer carbon-neutral travel.

IAATO has pledged to halve emissions by 2050 — a positive step, but far short of the net-zero targets set by the International Maritime Organization.

Can economics protect Antarctica?

Market-based tools — such as taxes, cap-and-trade schemes and certification — have been used in environmental management around the world.

Research shows these tools could also prevent Antarctic tourist numbers from getting out of control.
One option is requiring visitors to pay a tourism tax. This would help raise revenue to support environmental monitoring and enforcement in Antarctica, as well as fund research.
Such a tax already exists in the small South Asian nation of Bhutan, where each tourist pays a tax of US$100 ($152) a night.
But while a tax might deter the budget-conscious, it probably wouldn’t deter high-income, experience-driven tourists.
Alternatively, a cap-and-trade system would create a limited number of Antarctica visitor permits for a fixed period.
The initial distribution of permits could be among tourism operators or countries, via negotiation, auction or lottery. Unused permits could then be sold, making them quite valuable.
Caps have been successful in managing tourism impacts elsewhere, such as on Lord Howe Island, although no trades are allowed in that system.

Any cap on tourist numbers in Antarctica and rules for trading must be based on evidence about what the environment can handle.

But there is a lack of precise data on Antarctica’s carrying capacity. And permit allocations amongst the operators and nations would need to be fair and inclusive.
Alternatively, existing industry standards could be augmented with independent schemes certifying particular practices — for example, reducing carbon footprints.

This could be backed by robust monitoring and enforcement to avoid greenwashing.

Looking ahead
Given the complexities of Antarctic governance, our research finds the most workable solution is a combination of these market-based options, alongside other regulatory measures.
So far, parties to the Antarctic treaty have made very few binding rules for the tourism industry. And some market-based levers will be more acceptable to the parties than others.
But doing nothing is not a solution.
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