A gambling integrity watchdog has identified the United States’ Round-of-16 defeat to Belgium as one of seven 2026 World Cup matches that may have attracted unusual betting activity during the tournament.
The independent Group of Copenhagen highlighted a prediction market titled “Will Folarin Balogun play against Belgium?” as one area of concern, sources told The Athletic.
The market opened on July 2, soon after Balogun received a controversial red card in Team USA’s Round-of-32 victory over Bosnia and Herzegovina. Three days later, after President Donald Trump publicly called on FIFA to overturn the red card, the governing body chose to defer Balogun’s one-match suspension until after the tournament, clearing him to feature in the subsequent loss to Belgium.
According to The Athletic, the Group of Copenhagen noted in its report that no comparable markets were created for the 14 other players sent off during the World Cup. The organization has now asked FIFA to provide an official explanation regarding the handling of Balogun’s case.
The Daily Mail has requested comment from both FIFA and Polymarket. Neither organization has been accused of wrongdoing in connection with the matter.
The Group of Copenhagen operates under the Council of Europe’s 2014 Macolin Convention and serves as an independent network focused on detecting and preventing the manipulation of sporting events worldwide. During the 2026 World Cup, it reviewed all 104 matches in a tournament that generated more than $240 billion in bets globally, according to the group.
A gambling watchdog has raised questions over the handling of Balogun’s red card case
Folarin Balogun (20) fouls Bosnia’s Tarik Muharemovic (4), a challenge that led to a red card
Balogun was given a controversial red card in Team USA’s Round-of-32 win over Bosnia
Although its full report has not yet been published, a summary of its conclusions has been shared by the Council of Europe.
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The US loss to Belgium was among seven ‘yellow notices’ raised by the Group of Copenhagen, which has two higher levels of concern: orange and red.
‘The Group of Copenhagen’s notices can be explained by atypical behaviors such as changes in odds or hedging liquidities, there are many explanations that are not manipulations,’ Christian Kalb, a gambling industry expert who previously worked with the Group of Copenhagen, told The Athletic.
‘The major problem is when there may be a conflict of interest and potential inside information on those issues,’ she continued. ‘When we speak of prediction markets, we can detect some unusual behaviors but we must be very careful as they can be used for hedging markets.
The Norwegian FA is planning to complain to FIFA over the Folarin Balogun World Cup saga
Meanwhile, the Norwegian FA plans to launch a formal complaint to FIFA over Trump’s interference in Balogun’s red card ban.
Despite Trump’s interventions, the US were thrashed 4-1 by Belgium, yet the 80-year-old has repeatedly boasted about his involvement, adding that FIFA President Gianni Infantino made a ‘great decision.’
The antics of Trump and FIFA were widely condemned across the sport, and Norwegian Football Federation (NFF) President Lise Klaveness now says she is planning to formally complain to the governing body’s ethics committee.
‘When you bend a rule like this, you’re on a slippery slope that will put the whole game at risk,’ she said. ‘It is a worry for the game when you compromise fundamental rules of the game.
‘First of all, it should not have happened. It is very important now to have honest communication around it. We all know that this verdict was influenced from external forces and did not have the proper process.
‘If you start to adapt in such a way towards state leaders and state politics, you will move your behavior and the organization’s behavior, and also the red line of what states’ leaders should interfere with. And that happened.’
Defending his role in the saga, Infantino insisted it was an independent decision taken by FIFA’s disciplinary committee.
He said: ‘They operate autonomously, apply the FIFA’s disciplinary code, and decide cases based on the applicable regulations and the specific facts before them.
‘Their independence is essential to the credibility and integrity of football, and this must always be respected.’
