US intelligence agencies believe Iran’s new Supreme Leader is significantly more open to pursuing a nuclear weapon than his late father, marking a potentially dangerous turn in Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
The assessment represents a major shift in Washington’s view of Iran’s leadership and raises the pressure on President Trump as he considers whether to authorize broader military action.
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei assumed power after his father, longtime Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed earlier in the conflict during an Israeli strike that was reportedly supported by US intelligence.
For years, American officials regarded Ali Khamenei’s religious prohibition on nuclear weapons as sincere, even while Iran steadily developed its nuclear infrastructure and maintained the capability to move toward a bomb if its leaders made that choice.
Mojtaba Khamenei is now seen as taking a more uncompromising position. While he has not publicly advocated building a nuclear bomb, intelligence assessments cited by The New York Times reportedly suggest he has fewer ideological reservations about weaponization and could support a more sophisticated nuclear arsenal.
That change in outlook could strengthen arguments inside Washington for additional strikes. Officials say the latest intelligence may give Trump greater leverage if the US determines Iran is moving closer to a political decision to develop a nuclear weapon.
At present, Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment or restarted weapons-related work following last year’s US airstrikes, which caused extensive damage. Instead, Tehran appears to be concentrating on preserving what is left of its program, particularly the deeply buried underground facility known as Pickaxe Mountain.
Although Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has never publicly urged Iran to build a nuclear bomb, intelligence assessments reportedly suggest he has fewer ideological objections to weaponization than his father and may favor developing a more advanced nuclear arsenal.
Although the late Ali Khamenei issued a religious fatwa banning the use of nuclear weapons, the decree did not prevent Iran from developing much of the technology needed to produce one
Trump had declared the 2025 strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities had obliterated its nuclear program. However, early intelligence assessments reportedly found the damage, while significant, had likely delayed the program by only several months rather than destroying it completely
US officials say Iran has already moved at least some centrifuges into the facility, which burrows deep beneath a mountain in central Iran and is thought to lie beyond the reach of America’s most powerful conventional bunker-busters.
Israeli intelligence reportedly tracked the equipment, though Washington believes the goal is to shield critical assets, not restart enrichment. Tehran has poured extra ground forces around the site, amid fears the US could attempt a commando raid rather than rely on airstrikes alone.
That fear is grounded in what happened in June 2025, when Trump ordered strikes on Iran’s three most important nuclear sites. B-2 stealth bombers dropped massive bunker-busters on Fordo and Natanz, while Tomahawk missiles hit Isfahan. Trump declared Iran’s program obliterated.
His own spy agencies reportedly disagreed, finding the damage had set the program back only months, not destroyed it.
The delay stretched longer only because Iran chose not to rebuild or restart enrichment elsewhere. Crucially, its stockpile of highly enriched uranium survived intact, leaving much of the raw material for a bomb within reach should Tehran decide to move.
Intelligence on Mojtaba Khamenei’s intentions comes with heavy caveats. Much of it predates the current fighting.
The new Supreme Leader was reportedly wounded early in the war and has all but vanished from public view, nursing his injuries and wary of becoming the next airstrike target.
Officials also doubt he yet commands the authority his father wielded over three decades.
What they do believe is that his nuclear appetite runs further than his father’s. Where earlier intelligence suggested Iran had explored a crude, World War II-style device, Mojtaba is thought to favour sophisticated warheads small enough to sit atop long-range missiles.
Ali Khamenei’s fatwa banning nuclear weapons never stopped Iran mastering the technology to build one, and hardliners long argued Tehran should be able to assemble a bomb at speed if it had to.
Officials now warn the war may have handed those hawks their strongest argument yet: that only a credible nuclear deterrent can deter future strikes or another push to topple the regime.
If they are right, a campaign meant to end Iran’s nuclear ambitions may have done the opposite, sharpening its appetite for the very weapon Washington has spent decades trying to deny it.
