In recent years, Washington has often declared its intention to scale back its involvement in the Middle East. However, as 2025 unfolded, it became evident that American influence was, in fact, increasingly shaping the region. Analysts shared with Fox News Digital that the anticipated retreat did not materialize; instead, U.S. power played a pivotal role in reshaping Middle Eastern dynamics.

Blaise Misztal, the vice president for policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), highlighted how this year reiterated an enduring strategic truth. “What 2025 taught us, something Middle East observers have long recognized but U.S. policymakers often ignored, is that strength is the true currency in this realm, and U.S. leadership is irreplaceable,” Misztal explained.

Israeli political analyst Nadav Eyal echoed this sentiment, noting a distinct shift in the U.S. approach. “In 2025, we witnessed an enhanced American presence rather than a withdrawal,” Eyal observed. “The U.S. facilitated a hostage exchange and a ceasefire in Gaza, contributed to stabilizing Syria, and fostered stronger collaborations with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE.”

“The notion that the U.S. has exited the Middle East is simply obsolete,” he remarked.

In a significant diplomatic achievement, President Donald Trump presented a signed agreement during a world leaders’ summit aimed at resolving the Gaza conflict. This U.S.-mediated arrangement included a prisoner-hostage swap and a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, signed on October 13, 2025, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. (Suzanne Plunkett/Pool/Reuters)

Gaza: The ceasefire and the hostages

Throughout the year, the Trump administration successfully negotiated a ceasefire that concluded the two-year conflict in Gaza, resulting in the release of all Israeli hostages, save for the remains of Ran Gvili, which remain in Hamas’ possession. Initially, this agreement faced considerable skepticism within Israel.

President Donald Trump traveled to both Israel, where he addressed the Knesset, and Cairo to finalize the agreement, coordinating with Arab leaders and mediators in a complex process that included an exchange of Palestinian terrorists held in Israeli prisons for hostages.

“There is absolutely no doubt that without President Trump’s intervention, this could have lasted much longer, or maybe not have ended at all, or ended in tragedy,” Eyal said, adding that the administration fundamentally changed what had been considered possible.

“He expanded the realm of possibilities,” Eyal said. “If someone had told us six months earlier that this would be the framework of the deal, and that all the living hostages would be back home within 72 hours, we would have said it’s a great idea, but Hamas would never agree.”

Israeli hostages released in the Trump-brokered ceasefire deal met with U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. (The Hostages and Missing Families Forum)

According to Eyal, the breakthrough came from Israeli military pressure combined with U.S. insistence and regional coordination. “The military pressure put by Israel, enabled by the White House, together with the White House’s insistence and the enlistment of Qatar and Turkey, is what made the breakthrough,” he said.

Misztal also argued that the outcome was not the result of diplomacy alone. “The relative calm that the region is now enjoying, after two years of war, is not the result of diplomacy, which failed on its own to stop Iran’s nuclear advance or convince Hamas to return Israeli hostages,” Misztal said. “It is the result of Israeli and U.S. willingness to use force, and do so together in pursuit of common objectives.”

“Operations Rising Lion and Midnight Hammer, coupled with the Israeli strike in Doha, unlocked the path to peace,” he added.

The ceasefire remains fragile but intact, with the U.S. now deeply involved in shaping the postwar phase in Gaza.

President Donald Trump met with seven hostages freed from Hamas captivity, March 7, 2025. (Photo provided by Hostages Families Forum)

Regional shockwaves

On Dec. 8 last year, after Israel defeated Hezbollah, the Assad regime in Syria collapsed, signaling a dramatic shift in the regional balance of power.

That momentum carried into 2025. Operation Rising Lion known as the 12-day war, underscored Israel’s air superiority, with Israeli aircraft striking Iranian military infrastructure and eliminating senior IRGC commanders.

The campaign also highlighted the depth of U.S.-Israel coordination, culminating in a U.S. strike that targeted Iran’s nuclear program and curtailed Tehran’s ability to support its proxies.

Smoke rises from a building of the Soroka hospital complex after it was hit by a missile fired from Iran in Be’er Sheva, Israel, June 19, 2025. (AP Photo/Leo Correa)

Eyal said Iran now faces a period of profound uncertainty. “Iran will, without doubt, try to rebuild its influence after its proxy system was shattered,” he said. “It was defeated in war with Israel and lost most of its nuclear program.”

Two questions now dominate. “Can Iran rebuild its alliances, its prestige and its sources of power, like the nuclear program or air defenses, and stabilize itself again as a regional power?” Eyal asked. “The deeper question,” he added, “is what happens to the regime.”

He described Iran as increasingly unstable, with a devastated economy and growing public discontent. “It seems like almost everything is ripe for a substantial change in Iran,” he said. “Whether the Islamic Republic can survive without significant reform, or whether there will be a coup or counterrevolution, will take us well into 2026.”

This satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies shows damage at the Fordow enrichment facility in Iran after U.S. strikes, June 22, 2025. (Maxar Technologies via AP)

“The sands of the Middle East are always shifting”: What to expect in 2026

Eyal said the past year forced a reckoning about Hamas’ future. “In 2025, Israelis, and to a certain extent countries in the Middle East, woke up from a fantasy that Hamas would cease to exist completely as a functioning body,” he said.

“Everybody understands there will be some sort of presence of Hamas, and unfortunately, they will hold some sort of armed power,” Eyal added. “The question is, to what level can you reduce it?”

Palestinians amid the rubble of destroyed buildings in the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza, on Feb. 10, 2025. (Mahmoud ssa/Anadolu via Getty Images)

At the same time, he stressed the scale of Hamas’ losses. “In 2025 they suffered tremendous defeats and were wiped out as a functioning military body,” Eyal said. “This is the year in which it happened.”

“Even after losing half of Gaza, with Gaza devastated, and the hostages returned, they are still functioning as a military organization,” he added. “That means they are incredibly resistant or flexible.”

Misztal warned that the calm will not hold without sustained U.S. engagement. “The sands of the Middle East are always shifting,” he said. “Today’s calm will not last without consistent effort applied to uphold it.”

Hamas terrorists stand in formation to watch the handover of three Israeli hostages to a Red Cross team in Deir el-Balah, central Gaza, on Feb. 8, 2025. (Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

He warned that 2026 could see renewed pressure from multiple fronts. “Adversaries will seek to reassert themselves and find new advantages,” Misztal said. “Iran will test the boundaries of U.S. and Israeli patience and ISIS or other Sunni extremists may seek a spectacular attack to mark their comeback.”

“These will all be tests for the U.S. appetite to continue applying the ‘peace through strength’ approach,” Misztal said. “If Washington takes its eyes off the region, the progress of the last year might quickly be lost.”