In a surprising shift, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has overtaken JD Vance as the frontrunner to become the next President following Donald Trump.
According to the regulated prediction market site Kalshi, Rubio now has a 19% chance of winning the presidency in the 2028 election. Kalshi’s latest figures reflect this growing confidence in Rubio’s prospects.
Trailing closely behind, JD Vance is tied with California’s Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom, each holding an 18% likelihood of capturing the White House.
Earlier in the week, Vance was leading with a 20% probability, while Rubio’s chances were just under 17%. This recent development marks a notable change in their standings.
Despite the shift on Kalshi, Vance maintains a strong position on Polymarket, another leading prediction platform, as the top candidate to succeed Trump in 2028.
On Polymarket, Vance holds a 21% chance of becoming the next President, with Newsom at 18% and Rubio trailing at 15%, according to the figures released on Wednesday.
Since the Iran war broke out, and Rubio has taken center stage in the administration’s response, the Secretary of State has been ascendant in prediction markets.
So much so that Rubio’s odds of becoming the next President have almost doubled since the beginning of the war, when Rubio’s odds stood around 10 percent.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio now has the highest odds – 19 percent – to become the next President of the US, according to the prediction market Kalshi
Vice President JD Vance had previously had the highest chance of being named President in 2028. Vance still is the favorite on Polymarket, a prediction platform that rivals Kalshi
President Donald Trump has asked donors and advisors for their thoughts on comparing Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance
Since Trump ordered the capture of Venezuela’s ex-dictator Nicolás Maduro, Rubio has enjoyed more time in the spotlight as he has been tasked with explaining the administration’s position on its vast foreign policy agenda.
This week, the President floated that the Secretary of State – the son of Cuban refugees – could also soon lead the ‘friendly takeover’ of Cuba.
Cubans can ‘trust’ Rubio, Trump explained, because the former Florida Senator can speak Spanish, ‘which is always nice and always helpful,’ the President added.
Vance, meanwhile, was ‘less enthusiastic’ about the war, Trump has said, noting how he and his Vice President differ ‘philosophically.’
Trump himself has also shown an interest in who will succeed him in 2028.
The President has repeatedly asked donors and close advisors for their thoughts on Rubio and Vance, seemingly prodding for insights about how they could be viewed as presidential contenders.
Trump asked a room of donors at his Mar-a-Lago estate for their thoughts on his top two lieutenants one day after he launched a war on Iran, the Wall Street Journal reported this week.
It was not the first time Trump had quizzed his inner circle like this before.
The odds on Kalshi for who will win the 2028 election as of Wednesday afternoon
‘What do you think of JD Vance and Marco Rubio?’ the President asked during a speech, sources in the room told the WSJ.
Over jumbo crab and rib-eye steaks, attendees applauded loudly for Rubio, the people said. The Secretary of State reportedly received noticeably louder applause than Vance.
Vance, 41, and Rubio, 54, both former senators with differing appeal depending on where in the country one may be from – whether they like it or not – are at the heart of Trump’s 2028 sweepstakes.
Vance leads early polling to become the GOP’s 2028 presidential nominee, according to an exclusive survey by the Daily Mail and JL Partners.
Nineteen percent of respondents said Vance is the most influential member of Trump’s inner circle. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was second with 12 percent.
