The latest Resolve survey reveals a significant decline in voter trust in Australia’s major political parties, with both the Coalition and Labor seeing their primary support drop below 30 percent.
This stark reality underscores a strong protest movement among the electorate, who are increasingly disillusioned with the perceived spin, failings, and ineffective leadership of these parties.
In this climate of dissatisfaction, One Nation emerges as the primary beneficiary, with its support climbing two points to 24 percent in the most recent poll.
Remarkably, nearly one in four voters now backs Pauline Hanson’s minor party, which has doubled its support over the past year. This surge places One Nation in a position to potentially challenge for major party status, provided it can sustain this level of support during elections.
The straightforward and candid approach of Pauline Hanson appears to be a key factor driving her party’s steady ascent. Despite her long political tenure of nearly three decades, Hanson remains an “anti-politics” figure.
This familiarity allows voters to comfortably express their discontent with the major parties by supporting Hanson. Moreover, it may contribute to a greater tolerance for her controversial statements and actions.
Resolve has Labor’s primary vote on just 29 per cent, dropping three points in the past month. The Coalition’s woes continue, with its support down one point to 22 per cent, now a smaller vote share than One Nation.
The fact One Nation is now level pegging with the major parties is extraordinary when you compare the extent of the party infrastructure that supports the Coalition and Labor parliamentary teams.
Australian voters are having small parties over Labor and the Coalition (pictured is Labor leader, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese)
Their party organisations, at state level as well as federally, dwarf the extra-parliamentary support One Nation has at its disposal. It’s too simple for the major parties, and parts of the media, to comfort themselves with the idea that this is simply a right wing flare up that will burn itself out.
The evidence of shifting voting patterns points to something broader: we may be witnessing the greatest threat to the dominance of the two party system in this country. That is, if the polling support for the minor party translates on election day.
This coming weekend will see South Australians head to the polls for their state election. Labor are overwhelming favourites, the real test will be whether One Nation can become the official opposition in the election’s aftermath. Remembering that One Nation is at its weakest in a state like SA.
Federally, One Nation is heavily drawing votes from the Coalition, but it’s also attracting support away from the Labor Party. And the numbers suggest that it is branching out from the regions and Queensland, where One Nation’s support has traditionally been at its strongest.
The minor party will be hoping to seriously contest outer metropolitan electorates as well as regional electorates and Senate seats at the next federal election. Where it doesn’t win representation, One Nation preferences will play an important role in which major party does win seats.
With cost of living pressures at the forefront of people’s minds, voters are penalising the incumbent Labor Party for the difficulties they face. However, that protest vote is landing with One Nation and other minor parties and independents (Greens and teals) rather than the Opposition, as traditionally occurs.
It’s a sure sign that the dysfunction within the Coalition since the 2025 election thumping is now threatening its electoral viability.
But polling well and winning seats at elections are not the same thing. One Nation can build a large primary vote nationally and still struggle to convert that into lower house victories if it can’t do preference deals to help it secure over 50 per cent support in individual seats.
One Nation has been the lead beneficiary of Aussies’ favour towards smaller parties (pictured is One Nation leader Pauline Hanson)
While One Nation’s support has surged into the mid-twenties, there is a sense that the overwhelming majority of the community wouldn’t countenance a vote for Hanson or her party.
That sentiment, if true, might prevent voters delivering the minor party preferences ahead of alternatives on ballots.
The Senate is easier terrain for One Nation, because a smaller statewide vote can translate into seats under proportional representation.
Minor parties only need 14 per cent support after preferences are distributed to win Senate seats. On its current numbers that’s well below the party’s primary support.
The House of Representatives is much harder for small parties, because after preferences a party needs more than 50 per cent support. This has always been a barrier to entry for minor parties seeking to expand their representation to lower houses, especially if they struggle to attract more centrist voters.
The Coalition has expressed a willingness to do preference deals with One Nation, however there is no guarantee that Labor will do the same. Equally, some voters might not be inclined to blindly follow party preference recommendations when it comes to One Nation, for reasons already canvassed.
To win lower house seats, Hanson’s party needs to win more primary votes than at least one of the major parties and then attract their second and third preference votes to leapfrog to more than 50 per cent support.
It may be more likely that One Nation struggles to win seats despite its large primary support, but the growth of its support prevents the Coalition from regaining seats it otherwise hoped to win. Preventing it seriously contesting for government against Labor.
While Labor needs to worry about losing support to One Nation, it would take comfort from the emerging fight between the Coalition and Hanson’s party. New Nationals leader Matt Canavan has signalled plans to target One Nation in a bid to revive his party’s fortunes.
While that might be necessary for the Nationals to survive, the warring between fellow right-wing parties makes it harder for the Coalition to compete for government.
Staving off threats from One Nation risks pushing the Coalition further to the right to narrow the space within which Hanson and her team can foment discontent. This makes it harder for Liberals to win back inner-city seats, whether that’s against teals or the Labor Party.
It’s possible that one day Liberals and One Nation work together to form government, possibly in the aftermath of the demise of the Nationals, for example.
But in the here and now, the more likely scenario at the next election will see these right-of-centre parties scrapping over the leftovers of opposition, leaving an unpopular government with a record low primary vote to dominate at the election anyway.
