MARK DUBOWITZ: Trump's real endgame in Iran isn't what he said on TV

In a dramatic development, President Trump initiated a large-scale military action against Iran known as Operation Epic Fury. Following this decisive move, he addressed the nation, delivering remarks that extended beyond the usual rhetoric of regime change.

Over the years, I have consistently argued that the lasting solution to the menace posed by the Islamic Republic does not lie in another nuclear agreement, nor in further sanctions. Similarly, limited military interventions that merely delay their nuclear ambitions are insufficient.

The real answer, I believe, is the dismantling of the regime that has been in conflict with the United States, Israel, and its own citizens for nearly half a century. However, on Friday night, President Trump’s focus appeared to diverge from this specific goal, and it is important to accurately understand his intentions.

During his address, Trump emphasized two pivotal objectives. The first was the complete dismantling of Iran’s revitalized nuclear and missile programs. He ruled out any options that involve freezing, capping, or temporarily halting these programs through negotiations—measures he believes Tehran would inevitably violate once international vigilance wanes.

What he did do was set two clear and critical priorities.

First, the elimination of Iran’s reconstituting nuclear and missile programs. He won’t accept a freeze or a cap or a negotiated pause that Tehran will cheat on the moment the pressure lifts. 

He will only accept full dismantlement, zero enrichment and zero reprocessing. That’s the right standard.

After launching a massive military operation against Iran last night, Operation Epic Fury, President Trump delivered a message to Americans that wasn't merely a regime change speech

After launching a massive military operation against Iran last night, Operation Epic Fury, President Trump delivered a message to Americans that wasn’t merely a regime change speech

Because here’s what we know: Iran is sealing tunnels at its nuclear facility at Esfahan and moving centrifuges deep underground. 

It’s accelerating work at its nuclear operation at Pickaxe Mountain — buried even deeper than Fordow, with its own cache of thousands of centrifuges — to build a new enrichment facility that conventional bombs can’t reach. 

Additional weaponization sites at SPND and Taleghan 2 inside Parchin that were struck by Israel in June are also being actively rebuilt right now.

And China is shipping thousands of tons of solid–fuel missile propellant to Iran in open defiance of UN sanctions, while Tehran is close to finalizing a deal for supersonic anti–ship missiles designed to kill American sailors in the Persian Gulf. 

Iran is rebuilding its ballistic missile program and also has an active ICBM program designed to target the American homeland.

The nuclear program didn’t end in June 2025 following the first attack by Israel and America during their 12–day war last year. It was severely set back but it’s coming back. 

Elimination — not degradation — is the only acceptable outcome.

Iran and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is rebuilding its ballistic missile program and also has an active ICBM program designed to target the American homeland

Iran and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is rebuilding its ballistic missile program and also has an active ICBM program designed to target the American homeland

An explosion rocks teh Bahrain capital of Manama, which is home to the U.S. Fifth Fleet

An explosion rocks teh Bahrain capital of Manama, which is home to the U.S. Fifth Fleet 

U.S. air defense missile systems at the Erbil International Airport neutralize Iran rockets

U.S. air defense missile systems at the Erbil International Airport neutralize Iran rockets 

Second — and this is where I think Trump may have done something historically significant — by enabling Israel to target elements of the regime’s repression apparatus, he handed the Iranian people a window. 

Maybe the last window in a generation, as he noted.

The Islamic Republic has survived every crisis by deploying its security forces against its own population. 

Notorious arms of regime repression such as Evin Prison, the Basij, the Ministry of Intelligence, and the IRGC units that gunned down more than 30,000 protesters in the streets in January. These are not just human rights atrocities; they are the guarantors of the regime’s survival. 

When you degrade them, you change the internal calculus. You give the Iranian people — who have risen up in 2009, 2019, 2022, and again in January 2026 — a fighting chance to finish what they started. Trump was right to give them a choice: defect or die.

I’ve always believed that maximum pressure on the regime and maximum support for the Iranian people are two sides of the same coin. Last night’s speech moved the needle on the pressure side. 

Whether the Iranian people can seize this moment, whether the regime will be degraded enough, whether the will is there, whether the world will back them — I don’t know. History rarely announces itself in advance. 

But this is the best chance we’ve had in 46 years.

Mark Dubowitz is the chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies 

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