A renewed flash flood risk is expected to linger across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest for much of the week, fueled by hotter-than-normal conditions, deep moisture and a series of disturbances tracking through the area.
Repeated bouts of heavy rain this summer have already left the ground waterlogged, making it much easier for additional downpours to produce rapid runoff.
In addition to the flooding threat, the same storm systems continue to support conditions favorable for severe weather, putting more than 20 million people in potential danger on Wednesday.
From late Monday into early Tuesday, an intense squall line swept through South Dakota, where multiple wind gusts exceeded 75 mph.
That outbreak came after severe storms tore across northern Minnesota on Monday, prompting NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) to log at least six preliminary tornado reports.
In Detroit Lakes, Minnesota, emergency shelters were opened Monday to assist residents forced from their homes by the storms.
Farther east, parts of Walworth County, Wisconsin, including Lake Geneva, were still clearing debris and repairing damage early this week after severe thunderstorms hit the area on July 3.
With high pressure parked over the Midwest and a strong jet stream holding across the West, surges of moisture are expected to continue moving along the northern edge of the ridge.
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This stronger jet stream will enhance atmospheric lift, promoting thunderstorm development, while abundant low-level moisture and instability provide a favorable environment for severe weather.
At the surface, a stalled front stretching from Nebraska through South Dakota and into Minnesota and Wisconsin will serve as the primary focus for storm development through Wednesday.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, severe storms look likely along the cold front creeping through the Midwest, which carries a level 2 out of 5 severe storm threat for damaging wind gusts.
Elsewhere, a few supercells may try to develop in Wisconsin, bringing an isolated tornado threat.
Additionally, the repetitive, slow-moving nature of these storms will also escalate the flash flood potential.
“Much like boxcars on a train track, individual thunderstorm cells will pass over the exact same piece of land, one after the other,” the FOX Forecast Center said.
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a Level 2 out of 4 flash flood threat through Wednesday across portions of Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, and northern Kansas.
By Thursday, widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected across parts of the Upper Midwest, including Minneapolis, Duluth, and Marquette, Michigan, with localized pockets exceeding 3 inches possible.
Many of these areas remain well above average for precipitation year to date, making them especially vulnerable to additional flooding.
