In the crowded race for California’s governor, Xavier Becerra, a former member of President Biden’s Cabinet, has emerged as the clear favorite, according to the latest betting odds from Las Vegas.
Prediction market Polymarket currently places Becerra with a robust 52% probability of clinching the 2026 gubernatorial seat. This positions him significantly ahead of his closest competitor, billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer, who stands at approximately 32%.
This stark contrast highlights Becerra’s remarkable rise from early skepticism to becoming the leading contender in the race.
According to Polymarket’s odds as of Sunday night, Becerra’s campaign is enjoying a significant upswing as the June primary in California approaches.
- Becerra 52%
- Steyer 32%
- Hilton 9%
- Bianco 3%
- Porter 2%
- Mahan 1%
Having previously served as the Secretary of Health and Human Services and as California’s attorney general, Becerra initially faced challenges in gaining momentum. However, his campaign has seen a notable surge, especially following the recent collapse of former Representative Eric Swalwell’s campaign amid sexual assault allegations.
Becerra, who also served in the California state legislature before becoming attorney general, had struggled to gain traction until the spectacular implosion of ex-Rep. Eric Swalwellâs campaign this month following allegations of sexual assault.
Polls conducted after Swalwellâs career implosion showed Becerra skyrocketing near the top of voter surveys.
His rise comes after weeks of political momentum, with recent polling and betting markets increasingly positioning him as the clear favorite to replace termed-out Gov. Gavin Newsom in deep-blue California.
While Republican Steve Hilton and other challengers remain in the broader field, Polymarket traders appear overwhelmingly convinced Becerra has emerged as the candidate to beat.
The prediction platform, which has generated more than $22 million in trading volume on the California governorâs race, reflects growing confidence from political bettors who increasingly see Becerra as the safest wager in one of the nationâs highest-profile gubernatorial contests.
Though political markets can shift rapidly, Becerraâs commanding lead signals just how far ahead he currently stands in the battle for Sacramentoâwith Vegas-style odds painting a picture of a race that, for now, looks firmly in his favor.
Critics, however, have called out Becerraâs tumultuous tenure as Health and Human Services chief â when he was ripped for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and a crisis in which the agency lost contact with 85,000 migrant children.
He’s also been dinged for his ties to a Sacramento corruption scandal involving his former aide, Sean McCluskie, who pleaded guilty to his role in an alleged scheme to skim funds from a dormant campaign account for a âno-showâ job for his wife.
Becerra has not been accused of wrongdoing and has denied knowledge of the alleged activity.
