The Horn of Africa is teetering on the brink of a wider crisis. After explosions reportedly linked to drones struck Ethiopia’s capital in early October, the U.S. Embassy in Addis Ababa warned American citizens about the threat of “long-range attacks.”
Analysts say Ethiopia and Eritrea could be heading toward another war, with regional powers and armed groups increasingly supporting opposing sides.
Cameron Hudson, a former CIA analyst and former Africa director at the National Security Council, said the Trump administration must take a more active role. He told News Outlet that regional leaders privately oppose a broader conflict, but warned that “with so many armed actors and so much meddling going on in each other’s countries, a regional conflagration becomes increasingly likely.” He added that Washington should now be working to prevent the kind of miscalculation that could trigger a regional war.
In a notice posted online, the U.S. Embassy in Addis Ababa said it was aware of reports of possible long-range attacks targeting Ethiopian military facilities on several occasions in October. The embassy urged U.S. citizens to remain vigilant and follow guidance from local authorities.
The embassy also warned about misinformation, saying some social media accounts were circulating false or misleading claims about Ethiopia’s security situation. Americans in the country were advised to compare multiple sources and rely on credible information.
Explosions in and around Addis Ababa—particularly near military sites—have been confirmed. However, there is no independent confirmation that drones crashed into buildings in the major African capital, which is home to the headquarters of the African Union, as some reports have claimed.
Requests for comment sent to the Ethiopian government were not answered.
Analysts warn that Ethiopia and Eritrea could be on the verge of a new war. (Getty Images)
Blen Mamo, executive director of the Ethiopian Horn Review think tank, described the reports as deeply concerning. If the incidents were confirmed as aerial or drone attacks, Mamo told News Outlet, they would surpass the capabilities of Ethiopia’s domestic insurgent groups and support Addis Ababa’s claims of foreign state involvement.
Rebel factions fighting Ethiopia’s government have formed the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival. The coalition has claimed responsibility for the attacks in Addis Ababa and said its forces used drones.
Destroyed ammunition lies beneath the charred remains of an abandoned truck damaged by a drone strike during fighting between Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) troops and Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) forces in Adi Mesno, in Ethiopia’s Southern Tigray region, Oct. 9, 2026. (Reuters)
Dr. Jalale Getachew Birru, a regional expert with the U.S.-based Armed Conflict Location and Event Data research group, also warned that drones could open a new chapter in the conflict. If the Alliance for Survival has access to drone technology, Birru told News Outlet, it could significantly reshape the war by making control of the air central to strategic dominance.
In early October, Ethiopian forces drove rebel fighters from Mekelle, the capital of Tigray. The offensive brought an end to a four-year ceasefire between Addis Ababa and Tigray, Ethiopia’s northernmost region.
Members of the Ethiopian Federal Police patrol in a pickup truck after resuming operations in Mekelle on Oct. 9, 2026, following the federal military’s advance against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. Ethiopia and Eritrea accused each other of launching a war of aggression as Ethiopia’s internal conflict threatened to spill across borders. Over the previous week, Ethiopian forces had pushed back the TPLF and captured Mekelle, while Ethiopian Airlines said flights to the city would resume Oct. 11. (AFP via Getty Images)
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Reports last week alleged that Eritrean troops had crossed into Ethiopia. While the claims have not been independently confirmed, News Outlet reviewed several videos appearing to show large truck convoys carrying uniformed soldiers moving through the Ethiopian city of Adigrat. Addis Ababa reportedly responded with drone strikes and forced the Eritrean troops back across the border.
The latest escalation has been driven largely by Ethiopia’s demand for access to Red Sea ports. Ethiopia became landlocked after Eritrea gained independence in 1993. During a speech marking the start of a new five-year term on Oct. 5, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said access to the sea was “of vital importance to Ethiopia’s civilization.”
Abiy said Ethiopia would work to secure an outlet to the sea “based on the principle of give and take.”
Members of the Ethiopian National Defense Force assemble outside Mekelle Alula Aba Nega International Airport after federal troops retook the facility in Mekelle on Oct. 6, 2026. (AFP via Getty Images)
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is another potential source of regional instability. Egypt and Sudan have opposed Addis Ababa’s construction of the dam on the Blue Nile, arguing that it threatens their downstream water supplies. Egypt formally took a position against Ethiopia this month by joining Sudan, Eritrea and Somalia in a new coalition.
The State Department has stepped up diplomatic efforts to ease tensions. A department spokesperson told News Outlet that Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Allison Hooker met with Eritrean Foreign Minister Osman Saleh this month and held talks with Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timotheos.
Also, Assistant Secretary for African Affairs Frank Garcia met with Minister Saleh. The spokesperson added, “Both U.S. officials underscored the importance of respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity for all countries in the Horn of Africa.”
Following these discussions, State Department spokesman Thomas “Tommy” Piggott released a statement, saying, “Increasing cross-border tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea have the potential to affect the entire region. The Horn of Africa cannot sustain another military conflict and humanitarian crisis. A conflict jeopardizes ongoing U.S. collaboration on shared interests with both countries.”
Piggott added, “We strongly urge Ethiopia and Eritrea to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of their neighbors, exercise maximum restraint and return to dialogue and cooperation as agreed in their 2018 peace framework. Peace through dialogue is the only path toward sustainable security, economic growth, and prosperity.”
The Horn Review’s Mamo told News Outlet the reality on the ground is “increasingly pointing toward a conflict that may prove impossible to avoid,” and warned of Egypt’s motives: “Parallel military and technical cooperation with Asmara (the capital of Eritrea) also adds strategic depth along Ethiopia’s northern frontier, while Egypt’s expanding role in Somalia and Red Sea port initiatives extends its regional influence.”
“The situation in Ethiopia and in the region is extremely dynamic,” analyst Cameron Hudson told News Outlet. Hudson added, “The question remains, given the weakness of the internal (rebel) coalition, will external forces attempt to step in and exert greater leverage against Abiy.”
He continued, “We are seeing Eritrea begin to move forces into Ethiopia, while a coalition of regional states including Somalia, Egypt, Sudan and Eritrea have issued a statement that amounts to a veiled threat against Ethiopia and its regional ambitions to establish a Red Sea naval presence and expand a series of hydroelectric dams on the Nile. The entire Horn of Africa region is on a knife’s edge and it is being made only more complicated by Houthi efforts to shut Red Sea shipping and the war in Iran.”
Members of the Ethiopian National Defense Force parade during a celebration of Ethiopian Defense Force day in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. (Amanuel Sileshi/AFP via Getty Images)
“The risk of regional conflict remains high,” Hudson said. “Egypt would be happy to see Ethiopia bogged down in internal conflict and unable to pursue its ambitions on the Nile and in the Red Sea. Similarly, Sudan hopes that internal conflict in Ethiopia distracts Addis from its support of the rapid support forces militia in Sudan’s war.”
“Local disputes can quickly become regional and international disputes with global consequences very quickly in this corner of the world,” Hudson added, “Closure of the Bab el Mandab Strait, owing to unchecked tensions and violence across the Red Sea, will quickly be felt in the U.S.”
