Alberta Holds Non-Binding Separation Vote in Canada Independence Push

Albertans began voting Monday in a non-binding referendum on whether the province should pursue separation from Canada.

The referendum is taking place as Alberta mourns the deaths of four soldiers and the injuries suffered by dozens more after a fast-moving fire swept through a military base in the province.

An Abacus Data poll released Saturday found that 74% of decided voters among 1,021 respondents favor Alberta remaining part of the Canadian Confederation. Still, the independence question is unlikely to fade for the nearly 30% who want the provincial government to begin the process of holding a binding referendum on separation, said veteran separatist organizer Cory Morgan, head of the group Pathway to Independence.

“It will say that about one in three Albertans have had it,” Morgan told News Outlet. “There is a big rift within Alberta and if things don’t change, it will be a growing faction in this province — so this vote is an important one.”

Approximately 3 million Albertans are eligible to cast ballots in the referendum.

A separate recent Abacus poll found that 61% of the 1,021 eligible voters surveyed expect Albertans to vote again on separation, even if most voters opt to remain part of Canada.

The Angus Reid Institute reported Friday that 62% of 1,010 Albertans surveyed believe “there will never be an end to the separatist movement” in the province.

Morgan, who led the short-lived Alberta Independence Party from 2000 to 2001, said “a vocal minority” of separatists support Alberta becoming the 51st U.S. state. Most supporters of independence, he said, “don’t want to become a small fish in an even bigger pond.” He added that “Albertans in general are not too thrilled with President Trump right now and that makes them less inclined to leave the federation.”

Speaking Friday at a “Forever Canadian” rally in Edmonton, where he was raised, Prime Minister Mark Carney told more than 5,000 attendees that “this referendum comes at the worst possible time.” He said “the world is becoming more dangerous and divided [and] some outside our borders are working to break us so they can own us,” an indirect reference to Trump’s trade war with Canada and talk of annexing the country.

Morgan, 55, was born and raised in Alberta and said the province is “politically and culturally different” from eastern Canada. He pointed to a stronger emphasis on individual freedoms and property rights, values he acknowledged are traditionally associated with the United States.

“Most Albertans are going to feel much more comfortable sitting down for a beer with people from Great Falls, Montana, than they would in Ottawa,” Morgan said. He noted that Alberta’s population grew substantially after the province joined Canada in 1905, in part through migration from Montana. Following the discovery of oil in the 1940s, U.S. companies Chevron and Mobil helped develop the industry that became Alberta’s economic cornerstone.

Earlier this year, during an appearance on Real America’s Voice at Davos, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called Alberta “a natural partner for the U.S.” and described its residents as “very independent people.”

Carney responded that he “expect[ed] the U.S. administration to respect Canadian sovereignty.”

The Globe and Mail reported earlier this month that Alberta separatist leaders met with Republican strategists in Calgary in January to examine software intended to identify and mobilize supporters. The leaders also reportedly proposed trading water and oil for U.S. backing during meetings with State Department officials in Washington last year.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith told CBC News that if a majority of Albertans vote to remain in Canada, she will not hold another referendum on the issue while she remains premier.

However, Albertans are scheduled to vote in a general election on Oct. 18, 2027, and Morgan warned that Smith could no longer be in office by then. Morgan is a founding member of the former conservative Wildrose Party, which Smith once led.

The Wildrose Party merged with Alberta’s then-Progressive Conservative Party in 2020 to create the United Conservative Party, which Smith now leads. Morgan said more than half of the UCP’s nearly 55,000 members support Alberta independence. Smith has said she will vote for Alberta to remain in Canada.

Angus Reid, founder and chairman of the Angus Reid Institute, told News Outlet that in his firm’s recent polling, 67% of the 293 UCP voters who support a future binding referendum on separation said that they would either “definitely support” or “consider” supporting the creation of a separatist provincial political party – not unlike the Parti Québécois, which won the recent election in Quebec.

The emergence of an independence party in Alberta “would probably spell the death of the UCP since it is so badly divided between separatists and non-separatists, and it would likely end the career of Danielle Smith because of the amount of breakage in her party,” said Reid, whose firm’s survey found that 60% of the respondents who support a future binding referendum are “more likely sending a message to Ottawa” about the Canadian government’s often fractious relationship with Alberta.

“Separatist types are looking at how much leverage Quebec has been able to achieve in Canada as a result of its threats of exiting, and saying ‘Hold it, we can play that game too,’” explained Reid.

As of Saturday, more than 1.2 million Albertans had cast a ballot on the referendum, which, in addition to the question on separation, has nine others, five focusing on immigration, such as one asking voters whether their province should take more control “for the purposes of decreasing immigration to more sustainable levels, prioritizing economic migration and giving Albertans first priority on new employment opportunities.”