The United States is weighing possible airstrikes against al Qaeda-linked militants in Mali, regional analysts and recent media reports say, as security conditions deteriorate across the West African nation.
Mali, a Sahel country ruled by a military junta since coups in 2020 and 2021, shifted away from longstanding security partners France and the U.S. and instead turned to Russia and its Africa Corps mercenaries for protection against jihadist insurgents.
That strategy is now under intense strain. Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, the largest of the armed groups operating in Mali, has the capital under siege and is blamed, along with another group, for the killing of 50 Malian soldiers this month. The al Qaeda-linked organization has also been tied to the death of Mali’s defense minister earlier this year and has reportedly forced Russian units to retreat on at least two occasions in recent months.
Malian troops parade during the country’s 65th anniversary of the African nation’s independence. (Habib Kouyate/Xinhua via Getty Images)
JNIM is believed to be seeking to transform Mali into an Islamist jihadist state. If the group were to prevail, Mali would become the first country in the world governed by a jihadist organization. The group was formally designated a Foreign Terrorist Organization in 2018 during the first Trump administration.
Islamic State, or ISIS, jihadist factions are also operating openly in Mali and have links to terror networks in neighboring Nigeria.
A State Department official did not address a Washington Post report that the U.S. is considering strikes on JNIM targets in Mali. But the official’s forceful comments Thursday to INC News prompted some analysts to argue that Washington may be moving beyond diplomacy alone.
“The United States unequivocally condemns the terrorist activity in Mali,” the official said, adding, “in the Sahel, the United States is committed to promoting regional ownership and cooperation against terrorist threats, and monitoring indicators and warnings of threats to our homeland.”
This undated photograph handed out by the French military shows three Russian mercenaries, right, in northern Mali. Russia has engaged in under-the-radar military operations in at least half a dozen countries in Africa in the last five years using a shadowy mercenary force analysts say is loyal to President Vladimir Putin. The analysts say the Wagner Group of mercenaries is also key to Putin’s ambitions to re-impose Russian influence on a global scale. (French Army via AP)
Edmund Fitton-Brown, a former British and United Nations diplomat, said the U.S. could order military action, to primarily try and stop jihadists becoming entrenched in Mali. Fitton-Brown, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told INC News, “Mali is mainly important to the U.S. because, as a failed state becoming a safe haven for al Qaeda and ISIS, it looks like the first of several African dominoes likely to fall.”
Retired U.S. Air Force Maj. Gen. Kenneth P. Ekman, who until last year, served as the Department of War’s West Africa Coordination Element lead, said that with strike action the administration may be able to persuade Mali’s rulers to turn away from Russia, and towards the U.S. for protection – and purchases of military equipment.
A column of black smoke rises above buildings as traffic passes the Africa Tower monument in Bamako on April 26, 2026. April 25, 2026’s shock attacks, synchronized by Tuareg rebels of the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) coalition and the jihadist Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM), targeted several areas in the vast arid country. Fighting resumed on April 26 in several areas, including Kita near Bamako, Kidal, Gao and Severe.Tuareg rebels meanwhile announced an agreement allowing Russian forces backing Mali’s army to withdraw from the northern city of Kidal, which they claimed was “totally” under their control. (AFP via Getty Images)
Ekman told INC News, “JNIM has a stranglehold on the government and much of the population. The Russians are woefully ineffective and extractive. Cooperation with U.S. forces offers a disproportionate and positive impact.”
Ekman said that U.S. forces have supported partner-led operations against JNIM before, as recently as 2022, adding “recent proposals amount to returning to similar cooperation against a mutual threat.”
The administration may also be in a minerals frame of mind. Mali is one of Africa’s largest gold-producing nations. It also has substantial deposits of lithium, used extensively in rechargeable batteries.
Fitton-Brown said that “President Trump may be less reluctant than his predecessor to work with the juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, if they are losing faith in their Russian friends.”
A vehicle turned up following a brutal ambush on Russian Wagner fighters in Mali on July 27, 2024. (East2West)
He continued, “The U.S. is certainly a more capable partner. France has already been displaced, so all three countries might accept U.S. help if it comes only with strings attached that don’t offend or disadvantage them. Whether even the U.S. is capable of stopping the political decline of these countries, and the rise of militant Islam, is another matter. That cannot be achieved by military force alone.”
The FDD’s Fitton-Brown said U.S. assets such as aircraft may not be directly involved if there is a strike, “The U.S. might work with French and other intelligence services to develop local intelligence for strikes on JNIM leadership, but this is unlikely to achieve much. The organization is resilient and will be able to replace those killed.”
A former senior Department of War official told INC News the U.S. has at its disposal cruise missiles and long-range bombers. Attack drones would probably not come into play, and the U.S. Naval Institute’s Fleet Tracker shows no American aircraft carriers anywhere near African waters, effectively ruling out carrier operations.
However, Ekman believes airstrikes are under consideration, noting “JNIM and ISIS are a threat to U.S. interests, and are ascendant in West Africa.”
