A new survey is shaking up early speculation around the 2028 Democratic presidential primary, showing three prominent Democrats running ahead of both California Gov. Gavin Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris.
The hypothetical Democratic primary poll, conducted by The Public Sentiment Institute from July 25 to July 29 among 762 likely voters in Michigan, found former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg in first place with 24.2% support.
Behind him, Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff drew 13.9%, while New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez placed third with 10.7% in the early 2028 Democratic nomination survey.
Newsom landed just behind Ocasio-Cortez in fourth place with 10%, while Harris posted a weaker showing, trailing the group with 5.1% support.
The Michigan numbers stand out because they differ sharply from previous national polling, where Harris and Newsom had generally been viewed as the leading names in a potential Democratic 2028 field.
In June, a national Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll showed Harris at the front of the pack with 27% support, nearly twice Newsom’s 14%. Buttigieg was third in that survey with 11%, while Ocasio-Cortez drew 8%.
Even so, that national poll also pointed to some softening for the two California Democrats. Harris had slipped from 33% in October and 31% in March to 27%, while Newsom declined from 21% to 14%, hinting that the Democratic presidential race was becoming more fluid.
A separate national Emerson College Polling survey released in May also offered a less encouraging snapshot for both Harris and Newsom.
Newsom led that poll with 16%, but Harris managed only 10%, while Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro also reached double digits and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear climbed to 9%, signaling a broader field of contenders beginning to gain traction.
Despite their weaker showing in the Michigan survey, betting markets continue to view Newsom as one of the Democrats’ strongest potential nominees.
As of Sunday, prediction market Polymarket gave Newsom the highest odds of winning the Democratic nomination at 19%. Ocasio-Cortez and Ossoff stood at 15% and14% respectively, followed by Harris at 9%.
Kalshi’s market painted a similar picture, placing Newsom at 18%, Ossoff at 15%, Ocasio-Cortez at 14%, and Harris at 9.5%.
Several of the potential candidates have publicly addressed speculation about 2028.
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Harris, who has made appearances in early-voting states including Michigan and South Carolina, told Rev. Al Sharpton in April she was considering another White House bid.
“I might. I am thinking about it.”
She added: “I spent countless hours in my West Wing office footsteps away from the Oval Office. I spent countless hours in the Oval Office and the Situation Room. I know what the job is, and I know what it requires.”
Newsom acknowledged last year that a presidential campaign remained a possibility.
“I’m not thinking about running, but it’s a path that I could see unfold,” he told The Wall Street Journal in June 2025.
Ocasio-Cortez, meanwhile, has downplayed the idea of a White House campaign.
“My ambition is to change this country,” she said during a conversation with former Obama adviser David Axelrod.
“Presidents come and go. Senate, House seats, elected officials come and go. But single-payer healthcare is forever.
“A living wage is forever, workers’ rights are forever, women’s rights, all of that, and so anyways…to a finer point to your question is that when you aren’t attached, when you haven’t been like fantasizing about being this or that since the time you were 7 years old, it is tremendously liberating.”
Ossoff has been even more direct, telling CNN he has no plans to seek the presidency.
“I am not running for president in 2028, I have no interest in running for president in 2028.”
The Georgia senator added that he is “laser-focused” on winning reelection this year.
Other candidates in the poll included Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, who received 3.8%, and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who drew 3.6%. More than one in five voters — 21.7% — remained undecided, underscoring how unsettled the Democratic field remains more than two years before the election.
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