Xavier Becerra appears poised to dominate California’s governor’s race against Republican Steve Hilton, though the polling also points to a lack of enthusiasm for either candidate.
A new survey commissioned by Hilton’s campaign shows Becerra, a Democrat with more than 30 years in politics, ahead by 52% to 37%. Still, only 32% of likely California voters viewed Becerra favorably — exactly the same share that gave Hilton a positive rating.
The Echelon Insights poll, conducted this month and obtained exclusively by The California Post, found Becerra’s unfavorable rating at 37%, compared with 30% for Hilton.
The results indicate that Becerra’s sizable advantage may be driven less by widespread excitement about his campaign than by the Democratic Party’s significant voter-registration edge in California. Since the June primary, Becerra has largely avoided reporters and made few public appearances.
Hilton, meanwhile, remains unknown to a considerable portion of the electorate. Twenty-one percent of respondents said they had never heard of him, while 15% said the same about Becerra.
“A majority of Californians want change, not more of the same,” Hilton told The Post. “As we get closer to the election, we’ll be asking a simple question: why would you vote the same way and expect a different result?”
Hilton continued, “Everyone knows Becerra wouldn’t change anything, and would just be a rubber stamp for the costs and craziness from his Democrat friends in Sacramento.”
President Donald Trump, who has endorsed Hilton, received lower marks than either gubernatorial candidate. Just 28% of California voters viewed Trump favorably, while 64% held an unfavorable opinion of him.
“This poll shows that the only strategy Democrats have got — trying to tie me to President Trump — has completely failed,” Hilton said.
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“Californians know that the insane costs and craziness we all have to put up with here are caused by Democrat policies from Sacramento not policies from Washington.”
Even so, Becerra maintained a commanding lead when respondents were asked how they would vote to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom if the election were held immediately. Fifty-two percent selected Becerra, compared with 37% for Hilton, while 11% remained undecided.
Fifty percent of those surveyed said they would definitely or probably consider voting for Becerra. Forty percent said the same about Hilton. Conversely, 45% said they would not consider voting for Hilton, compared with 38% who ruled out Becerra.
Hilton’s campaign believes it can gain ground with groups it has identified as “key voter targets.”
After respondents were presented with a series of negative statements about Becerra’s record — including claims tied to his tenure as U.S. health and human services secretary, during which hundreds of thousands of migrant children were reportedly unaccounted for — the race narrowed to 44% for Becerra and 42% for Hilton.
Hilton, a former Fox News host and adviser to former British Prime Minister David Cameron, is running to become California’s first Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Echelon Insights conducted the English-language survey for Hilton’s campaign in mid-September. The poll included 1,199 likely California voters.
The polling firm said it weighted the statewide results to match the expected electorate. Its reported margin of sampling error was plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
