California Governor Race Heats Up as Debate Shifts Betting Odds Dramatically

Last night’s gubernatorial debate in California appears to have shifted the momentum in favor of progressive billionaire Tom Steyer, according to market analysts, potentially at the expense of another candidate who had previously been gaining ground.

This debate, stretching over an hour and a half, marked the first since former congressman Eric Swalwell exited the race amid sexual assault allegations.

Although many anticipated fiery exchanges that would clarify the leading candidates, the encounter proceeded without significant drama.

However, post-debate betting markets indicate a growing preference for Steyer, raising questions about whether Xavier Becerra, the former Health and Human Services Secretary, can maintain his recent surge.

Earlier this month, as accusations against Swalwell circulated, Steyer’s odds surged on the betting platform Kalshi, as observers speculated he and former congresswoman Katie Porter would attract Swalwell’s supporters.

Contrary to expectations, recent polls revealed Becerra, previously struggling to gain traction, climbing rapidly alongside Steyer.

One poll had Becerra jumping to 15% support — an 11-point surge from just 4% earlier this month and tied with Steyer.

Bettors adjusted accordingly, and right before the debate, the two Democrats’ odds were about the same at around 38%.

Momentum was shifting to Becerra, who appeared poised to pick up support from political operatives in Gov. Gavin Newsom’s orbit.

The dark horse candidate was set to capitalize on the surge in the debate, but observers thought he didn’t come off as strong. In one instance, Becerra incorrectly suggested Trump recently started a war with Iraq instead of Iran.

“Ironically enough, though, if you’re a Democratic legislator or donor, he clearly came across as the safest choice,” Dan Schnur, a teacher of political communications at USC and UC Berkeley, told the Post.

Bettors seemed to agree on the lackluster performance. After the debate, Becerra’s odds dropped a relatively large seven points down to 33%. Steyer only dropped one point, now at 37%.

The lower-polling San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan saw the biggest odds boost from the debate, increasing by seven points to 16%.

Becerra, who also is a former state attorney general, did not seem too concerned about any momentum disappearing. He shared news after debate day that his campaign just saw its biggest fundraising day ever, with a $350,000 haul from 7,500 people, of whom 80% are first-time donators.

“This is what a people-powered campaign looks like. If you’re ready for a fighter in the governor’s office, join us,” Becerra said.

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