Is California on the verge of a political shift?
In the lead-up to the June 2 Primary, early voting in California has seen an impressive turnout, with more than 900,000 ballots already cast. Notably, there has been a significant increase in Republican participation compared to the governor’s race four years ago.
On Saturday, Political Data (PDI), a research firm, revealed that of the 905,889 ballots returned so far, 37% were from Republican voters. This marks an 11% increase in Republican returns from the same point during the 2022 midterms.
Perhaps more surprising is the shift in Democratic engagement. Currently, 41% of the returned ballots are from Democrats, which is a 13-point decline from the same stage in the primary election four years ago.
When juxtaposing the 2022 figures with those of 2026, the contrast becomes even more pronounced. Could this indicate a potential red wave in the traditionally blue state, or is it merely a temporary fluctuation? Time will tell as we approach the primary.
41% (-13)-Democrats
37% (+11)- Republicans
22% (+2)-Independents/other
Vice President with PDI Paul Mitchell attributed the early numbers to two different things.
“Republicans are potentially returning their ballots at a pre-2020 rate, before [President Donald]Trump and other leaders discouraged it,” Mitchell told The Post.
And the second, he said that “some Democrats are holding on to their ballot to make sure their vote isn’t wasted, so that they get to vote for someone that makes it to the top two.”
A post on X from Central Valley Politics celebrated the early voting results mapping out how each county is faring, showing huge swaths of the state blood red for Republicans.
“California Republicans are currently killing it in the early vote, so I decided to map it out,” the post read.
“First map is returns by party. Second map is returns relative to the party registration advantage of each county.”
It added, “we’re punching above our weight in all but two counties so far.”
Digging into the PDI data, it found that the largest turnout has been in the 65 and older group, with 54% ballots returned, with the 18-34 age group having a low turnout of 10% ballots returned.
Mitchell noted that these are the kind of numbers they typically see in a low-voter turnout election year.
“It’s kind of typical of a low-turnout election that these are the people that always vote in every election. They probably almost always vote early, and they’re getting their ballots in right away.”
The Democratic field is led by former US Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, progressive billionaire Tom Steyer and former Orange County congresswoman Katie Porter, while San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa have shown more feistiness in recent weeks.
While on the Republican side, former Fox News host Steve Hilton appears to have a firm lead on Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.
