Major dispute to threaten Trump's Iran deal over billions in frozen Tehran funds: expert

As American and Iranian negotiators gathered in Switzerland on Sunday, a regional analyst cautioned that a disagreement over billions of dollars in Iranian assets that could be unfrozen may become an early test of a fragile interim arrangement.

The issue is surfacing just as Washington and Tehran move to put into practice the memorandum of understanding signed on June 17. The first round of follow-up talks is taking place at Bürgenstock, near Lucerne, Switzerland.

Iran International reported that President Masoud Pezeshkian outlined Tehran’s expectations early Sunday, saying, “$6 billion of our funds in Qatar will be returned. Trump, who tried to deny Iran its rights, acknowledged them in his recent speech.”

The debate stems from discussions at the G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains, France, where world leaders weighed how to handle the assets and the conditions tied to any potential release.

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Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi

As U.S.-Iran talks began Sunday in Switzerland, a dispute surfaced over who would control and monitor billions of dollars in Iranian assets that may be unfrozen. (Fabrice Coffrini/Pool via REUTERS)

“We have taken their money, it isn’t our money, it is their money, and we froze it,” President Donald Trump said. “At a certain point in time, I guess we’re going to have to give it back.”

Trump also emphasized that Iran’s access to the money would remain tightly conditional. In a Truth Social post, he said Tehran would receive “not ten cents” during the 60-day negotiation period if it failed to meet its commitments.

“There are effectively two competing narratives about the frozen funds,” Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, told News Agency.

“Releasing frozen assets is not simply an economic question. It is one of the central political tests of trust between Tehran and Washington and will likely become one of the first major implementation disputes in the weeks ahead,” Vatanka added.

Paragraph 11 of the MOU framework states that the United States “undertakes to make fully available” restricted and frozen Iranian funds.

However, the agreement ties any release of funds to a step-by-step process based on compliance, rather than granting immediate, unrestricted access.

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U.S. delegation arriving in Switzerland.

The U.S. delegation, including Steve Witkoff, JD Vance and Jared Kushner, arrived in Switzerland on Sunday. (Nathan Howard/Pool/REUTERS)

“First, there remains considerable uncertainty over the total amount of Iranian assets frozen abroad,” Vatanka said.

“Iranian officials often speak of more than $100 billion, while Western estimates range higher. The immediate negotiations, however, appear focused on securing access to roughly $24 billion to $25 billion as an initial tranche.”

Iran’s frozen assets are widely estimated at between $100 billion and $120 billion and held under sanctions and financial restrictions in countries including China, India, Iraq and South Korea, according to reporting by the Wall Street Journal.

Vatanka said the central dispute extends beyond the size of the payout.

“The real dispute is not simply about how much money Iran receives, but who ultimately controls how it is spent.”

“Iranian officials are emphasizing sovereignty over the funds, while the United States is trying to preserve leverage by attaching conditions to their use,” he added as talks got underway Sunday.

In a statement on X, Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said the talks are aimed at reaching a comprehensive and lasting agreement covering all elements of the framework.

Spokesman Majed bin Mohammed Al Ansari said technical teams were negotiating the final deal while oversight groups would monitor implementation and track progress.

The U.S. and Qatar are exploring a mechanism to channel an initial $6 billion toward humanitarian purchases, including food and medicine, according to reports.

Hezbollah terrorists holding rifles in a group

Hezbollah terrorists holding rifles are shown in this image. A “terrorist network” funded and operated by Hezbollah and Iran was foiled in the United Arab Emirates, according to a report. (Fadel Itani/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

However, Western intelligence officials remain concerned that unfrozen funds could be diverted to regional conflicts rather than domestic development projects.

Reuters reported that Iran has already signaled to Hezbollah that increased financial support could resume if Tehran’s cash flow improves.

“This issue also has an important regional dimension,” Vatanka said. “Iran has pledged to direct a portion of those reconstruction funds toward supporting its weakened proxy network in Lebanon.”

“The United States has insisted that Iran cannot use any unfrozen assets to fund terrorist organizations, warning that access to the funds would be revoked if Tehran violates the terms of the agreement,” he added.

Vatanka said the two sides also remain divided over the broader purpose of the agreement.

“Tehran is presenting the roughly $25 billion as money that will be released gradually and invested in rebuilding the country’s infrastructure, with officials talking about roads, airports, transport corridors and projects that visibly benefit ordinary Iranians.”

“Washington, however, appears to be describing something much narrower,” Vatanka added.

“U.S. officials have indicated they want the funds released through controlled mechanisms, primarily for humanitarian and other approved civilian purchases, rather than giving Tehran unrestricted access.”

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