NIGEL FARAGE not only tipped over the apple cart of English politics, he set it alight for good measure.
And the fumes are choking both Downing Street and the Tories this weekend.
If you emerged from a time machine from a decade ago, not to mention 50 years back, you’d be astonished to see Labour completely defeated in Durham.
But that red bastion was just one of seven councils swept away by May Day’s “Turquoise Wave” — as right-wing insurgents Reform UK came of age.
Well, Farage had promised a political earthquake for years, but boy, has he finally delivered.
He literally knocked Sir Keir Starmer for six in one of Labour’s safest seats.
The Runcorn by-election saw Reform’s apparently now professionalised machine overturn a 15,000 majority and win by just half a dozen votes.
Remember that next time someone tells you your trip to the polling station doesn’t count.
However, Reform was just beginning to make headway across large parts of England, as Farage’s revamped force made a significant impact in Thursday’s local council elections, surpassing even the highest predictions for a successful outcome.
In the North East, the South East and the Midlands, the country went turquoise as a bombshell poll just two weeks ago in The Sun predicted it would.
Regions such as Durham, Staffordshire, Lincolnshire, Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire, and Lancashire, along with the strategic area of Britain’s border — Kent — all were won over by Reform.
Should those results be repeated at a General Election, the entire two-party British political system will be upended and Nige would be heading to No10.
It was a bruising, and hopefully humbling, day for the Labour government as every Winter Fuel-snatching, tax-raising and gloomster doomster chicken came home to roost.
Be in no doubt, the continued farce of Britain’s open borders was felt at the ballot box too.
Last night, Starmer’s cheerleaders were attempting to play down the results, but his enemies smelled blood.
“The Labour leadership must urgently change course . . . ”
“Runcorn is a warning we can’t ignore . . . ” “a disastrous night” and
“Labour must change course” were just a handful of “on the record” quotes for sitting Labour MPs fuming with their party leadership.
Shifting sands
Privately, others were frothing at the mouth.
The Labour leadership and their outriders were putting on a brave face yesterday, promising to double down on the change mantra and carrying on like nothing had happened.
But be in no doubt again — and you will hear spin from all sides — if anyone tries to play down the significance of these shifting sands across the British political system, they are either delusional or they are deceiving you.
Labour say they’ve made “tough decisions” and have time to turn it around.
But, with results like this, the chances of a second term for Sir Keir Starmer look very dicey this weekend.
I suspect Chancellor Rachel Reeves is also going to have a rough few weeks too, as she attempts to squeeze Whitehall budgets, just as ministers will be more and more emboldened by the resounding “boo” from the public at Labour’s actions in power so far.
Wipe the smile off their faces
Just a few days ago, pundits and pollsters were predicting a bad result for Labour would see them gaining at least 100 seats from the Tories.
Last night they were down more than 50.
Last week, Downing Street sources were ruling out a reshuffle of the Cabinet in response to any local election backlash, but given the size of the pasting, I hear nothing is off the table.
And those whispers that the Chancellor would fall on her sword were she forced to tear up her fiscal rules and allow the Government to borrow more rather than cut spending, also came back with a bang last night.
Downing Street sources were ruling out a reshuffle of the Cabinet in response to any local election backlash, but given the size of the pasting, I hear nothing is off the table
But if any Conservative was enjoying Labour’s misfortunes last night, a quick look at their own numbers will quickly wipe the smile off their faces.
The Tories had their fair share of pain — with stronghold after stronghold falling and Reform literally eating their breakfast.
One poor shadow minister sent out to defend their results on our Never Mind the Ballots show reminded me of Saddam Hussein’s spokesman insisting that the Iraqi government was winning as American tanks rolled into town in the background live on TV.
Struggling opposition leader Kemi Badenoch did not so much lose the match yesterday, but appeared to have forgotten her entire kit, let alone turn up to a training session.
The Tories were always braced for a bad night, given these local councils were last fought at the height of Boris Johnson’s popularity in 2021.
But even Kemi’s fiercest critics did not expect a machine gunning of this scale.
Reform like to say they are the real opposition to the Starmer government.
But the numbers and swings achieved certainly went some way to cement that idea.
Blinded by the headlights
In Staffordshire, Reform were up 49 councillors, while the Tories were down 47.
In Worcestershire, Reform were up 27, the Tories down 43.
I could go on . . .
The Tory party was once famous for getting rid of their leaders, especially duff ones that risk their electoral fortunes.
But now they seem blinded by the headlights.
Some frustrated Tory MPs say their colleagues are suffering from an “overcorrection” of late after five years of regicide; a party bound in the unity of exhaustion and not prepared to make the strike that others on the Opposition benches now feel is inevitable.
Meanwhile, the bookies were slashing the odds last night to 5/2 of Nigel Farage being the next PM, and of Kemi Badenoch being replaced within 12 months.
Back into that time machine and fast forwarding a few years, after Thursday’s hurricane, there could be some value in those bets.
