Hungary’s Decisive Election: Potential Shift as Voters Challenge Prime Minister Orbán’s Populist Reign

BUDAPEST, Hungary — On Sunday, Hungarians headed to the polls in what many consider Europe’s most pivotal election of the year. This vote has the potential to end the 16-year reign of populist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, known for his alliance with former US President Donald Trump.

This election is a significant juncture for Orbán, who holds the record as the European Union’s longest-tenured leader and one of its most controversial figures. Over the years, he has transformed from a liberal, anti-Soviet crusader to a nationalist leader with close ties to Russia, earning admiration from the global far-right.

Polling stations opened their doors at 6 a.m. and were set to close at 7 p.m. Orbán, along with his main competitor Péter Magyar, cast their votes in Budapest, arriving at different polling stations but nearly simultaneously.

Addressing the media outside, the 62-year-old Orbán described the campaign as “a great national moment on our side,” expressing gratitude to activists and supporters for their efforts. “I’m here to win,” he declared.

The eyes of Europe and the world were fixed on this election, highlighting the significant influence Orbán wields within far-right populist circles globally.

Orbán’s leadership and his Fidesz party have become emblematic for members of the “Make America Great Again” movement in the United States, who view his government as a model of conservative and anti-globalist governance. However, he remains a divisive figure, criticized by proponents of liberal democracy and the rule of law.

After casting his vote, Magyar told reporters that the election was “a choice between East or West, propaganda or honest public discourse, corruption or clean public life.”

“I urge all Hungarian citizens to exercise their right to vote,” he said.

Casting her ballot in Budapest early Sunday, retiree Eszter Szatmári, 62, said she felt the election was “basically our last chance to see anything vaguely resembling … democracy in Hungary.”

“We all have to make real effort to show to the world that we are not who people thought we were in the past five to ten years,” she said.

Turnout after the first five hours of voting was 37.98%, according to the National Election Office. That is a record in Hungary’s post-communist history, with around 876,000 more voters having cast their ballot by 11 a.m. than during 2022 elections.

Orbán has been at the helm since 2010

During his 16 years as prime minister, Orbán has launched harsh crackdowns on minority rights and media freedoms, subverted many of Hungary’s institutions and been accused of siphoning large sums of money into the coffers of his allied business elite, an allegation he denies.

He has also heavily strained Hungary’s relationship with the EU, seeming to revel in using his veto power to stymie the 27-member bloc’s important decisions. Most recently, he blocked a 90-billion euro ($104 billion) EU loan to Ukraine, prompting his partners to accuse him of hijacking the critical aid.

Yet after winning four consecutive elections with a two-thirds majority for his party in Parliament, signs have emerged that Orbán’s absolute control over Hungary’s politics may be reaching its end.

A serious challenger on the rise

Magyar has rapidly risen to become Orbán’s most serious challenger. The 45-year-old leader of the center-right Tisza party, which is leading in independent polls, campaigned on issues affecting ordinary voters, including Hungary’s faltering public health care and transportation sectors, and what he describes as rampant government corruption.

A former insider within Orbán’s Fidesz, Magyar broke with the party in 2024 and quickly formed Tisza. Since then, he has toured Hungary relentlessly, holding rallies in settlements big and small in a campaign blitz that recently had him visiting up to six towns daily.

In an interview with The Associated Press earlier this month, Magyar said the election will be a “referendum” on whether Hungary continues on its drift toward Russia under Orbán, or can retake its place among the democratic societies of Europe.

Tisza won 30% of the vote in European Parliament elections in 2024, and Magyar took a seat as an EU lawmaker. Tisza is a member of the European People’s Party, the mainstream, center-right political family with leaders governing 12 of the EU’s 27 nations.

Facing an uphill election battle

Magyar and Tisza face a tough fight. Orbán’s control of Hungary’s public media, which he has transformed into a mouthpiece for his party, and vast swaths of the private media market give him an advantage in spreading his message.

The unilateral transformation of Hungary’s electoral system and gerrymandering of its 106 voting districts by Fidesz will also require Tisza to gain an estimated 5% more votes than Orbán’s party to achieve a simple majority.

Additionally, hundreds of thousands of ethnic Hungarians in neighboring countries have the right to vote in Hungarian elections and traditionally have voted overwhelmingly for Orbán’s party.

There have also been comments ahead of the election that external meddling and internal fraud could taint the result. Fidesz and Tisza both have launched platforms for reporting irregularities, accusing their opponents of planning to commit election abuses.

Russian secret services have plotted to interfere and tip the election in Orbán’s favor, according to numerous media reports, including by The Washington Post. The prime minister, however, has accused neighboring Ukraine, as well as Hungary’s allies in the EU, of seeking to interfere in the vote to install a “pro-Ukraine” government.

Such accusations are part of why many in the EU who see Orbán as a danger to the bloc’s future hope he loses and a new Hungarian government under Magyar will prove a better partner.

But across the Atlantic, Trump and his MAGA movement are all-in for another Orbán term. Trump has repeatedly endorsed the Hungarian leader, and US Vice President JD Vance made a two-day visit to Hungary last week meant to help push Orbán over the finish line.