Iran’s ruling establishment is more inclined to sustain tensions with the United States and Gulf neighbors than pursue a durable peace, using confrontation to divert attention from mounting public frustration at home, according to one expert.
The warning comes as U.S. forces carried out airstrikes against Iran in recent days, following a brief lull in hostilities and fresh unrest around the Strait of Hormuz.
Dr. Majid Sadeghpour, a human rights activist and political director of the Organization of Iranian-American Communities, told News Outlet that Tehran’s greatest fear is not foreign military pressure, but growing anger among Iranians themselves.
Fires burn as anti-government protesters gather Jan. 8 in Tehran. One human rights activist warned that Iran’s leadership favors a controlled conflict with the United States over peace because it helps shift public attention away from domestic unrest. (Getty Images, File)
Sadeghpour said U.S. officials had already offered Tehran assurances that could have opened the door to a peaceful path forward for Iran.
“You get America to give you a guarantee that it wouldn’t seek regime change. Nevertheless, they still attacked ships afterward,” Sadeghpour said. “They still attacked our bases in Jordan and Bahrain. So that speaks to the fact that the real threat to the regime is not the bombs from outside, but rather the population uprising.”
Ships and tankers move through the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Musandam, Oman. President Donald Trump has said he is not focused on bringing Tehran back to the negotiating table. (Reuters, File)
“For a regime that’s militarized and requires friction, its survival now depends on that friction,” he added.
Iran has experienced major uprisings in recent years driven by economic collapse, high inflation, and deep discontent with the regime’s strict religious interpretation of Islam. In addition, the Iranian government has suppressed anti-government riots and protests with deadly force and arbitrary arrests and detention, according to human rights observers.
The war with the U.S. helps the regime, Sadeghpour said, by refocusing the Iranian public’s attention elsewhere.
Meanwhile, Iran has continued to target commercial ships in the strait in violation of an agreement not to do so, Vice President JD Vance said Thursday.
Regime leaders in Iran such as supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei are content to see continued confrontation with the U.S., an expert says. (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images, File)
“The Iranians are doing what the Iranians do,” Vance said. “I think that they’re losing their capabilities by the day. I think they’re realizing… that their control over the Strait of Hormuz is effectively gone, and it’s a diminishing asset.”
In order to effect regime change, the U.S. should focus its efforts on the Iranian population, said Sadeghpour, because Iranian leaders will likely drag out the conflict with the U.S. for as long as they can.
“The regime is thinking about the day, the hour after the exhausted population gets calm, and will immediately look around, ‘how am I going to get rid of this regime? And who’s going to help me do that?’ And so that is what the regime is afraid of,” he said.
Marines aboard USS New Orleans (LPD 18) stand watch in the Arabian Sea during naval blockade operations against Iran. (U.S. Central Command)
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump on Wednesday said he isn’t focused on bringing Tehran to the bargaining table, saying he “couldn’t care less” if Iran signs a “worthless” agreement.
“They are just playing out the inevitable,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “When are the Iranian people going to rise up and fight?”
