Over the weekend, analysts noted a significant shift in Tehran’s power dynamics as the hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leader took command of both the military and negotiation teams. This move signals a consolidation of power by IRGC Commander Maj. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi and his close allies, as reported by the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Evidence of this power shift is reflected in recent aggressive actions, such as Iran’s assaults on ships navigating the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran’s steadfast refusal to engage in peace negotiations with the United States this week. These developments suggest that the IRGC is asserting its influence over Iran’s strategic decisions.
This hardline approach also indicates a marginalization of Iran’s more moderate leaders, like Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi. Although Araghchi had initially reached an agreement with the Trump administration to open the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, the IRGC insisted on keeping it closed, countering the American blockade of Iranian ports.
Gen. Vahidi’s authority is further strengthened by the support from Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and a seasoned IRGC figure, who endorsed Vahidi’s control over the strait. This backing underscores Vahidi’s fortified position within Iran’s leadership.
The IRGC’s fast attack vessels continue to serve as Iran’s primary naval force in this crucial maritime corridor. This comes after US-Israeli airstrikes decimated over 150 vessels of Iran’s conventional navy during the conflict, leaving the IRGC’s fleet as the dominant maritime power.
The IRCG’s fast attack ships remain Iran’s main form of naval force in the key waterway after US-Israeli airstrikes sunk more than 150 vessels of Tehran’s conventional navy during the war.
Iran had attacked at least three ships trying to get through the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, signaling that the oil chokepoint remains closed off as hundreds of ships are still stuck in the Persian Gulf.
Vahidi and Zolghadr’s alliance goes beyond the military blockade, with the IRGC commander tapping his ally to join the Iranian delegation earlier this month.
Zolghadr was specifically sent to make sure the delegation was following the IRGC’s command and that of Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who ascended to replace his father at the pushing of the Islamic Guard.
“Zolghadr sent a complaint to senior IRGC leaders, almost certainly including Vahidi, that Araghchi had surpassed his mandate during the negotiations by expressing flexibility regarding Iran’s support for the Axis of Resistance,” the ISW said of the initial peace talks.
“Zolghadr’s anger caused senior leaders in Tehran, including former IRGC Intelligence Organization Chief and long-time member of Mojtaba’s inner circle, Hossein Taeb, to call the negotiating delegation back to Tehran,” the think tank added.
Vahidi’s alliance has ultimately made him the top decision-maker in Iran apart from Khamenei, who has yet to make a public appearance since he was injured during the initial US-Israeli airstrikes that killed his father and other top officials.
This puts Vahidi and the IRGC above Araghchi and Iranian Parliament leader Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who, despite their anti-American rhetoric, are considered moderates.
The state of affairs undermines Araghchi and Ghalibaf’s negotiations with the US as they lack “leverage or formal executive authority to shape decision-making,” the ISW notes.
It also undermines statements from the Trump administration that the US was dealing with a reformed regime after killing dozens of top Iranian officials during the war.
With no date set for US-Iranian negotiations to continue, it remains to be seen if the fragile cease-fire will be extended past the deadline set for Tuesday.
