Donald Trump opens three-point lead over Kamala Harris in final Daily Mail poll before Election Day
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In the latest national survey conducted by DailyMail.com and J.L. Partners, Donald Trump has surpassed Kamala Harris, leading the vice president by three points as Election Day approaches.

While both candidates have solidified their core supporters, Trump has notably gained traction among independent and undecided voters, according to the findings.

The poll, sampling 1,000 likely voters with a margin of error of ±3.1%, indicates that Trump is gaining momentum, securing 49% support compared to Harris’ 46%.

Despite the tight contest, these figures suggest that Trump could be on track to become the first Republican since George W. Bush in 2004 to capture the popular vote, with just five days remaining before the election.

Previously, the vice president had a slight edge, leading by one point in the September poll.

J.L. Partners polled 1000 likely voters from Oct 26 to 29. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 points, but put Donald Trump back in the lead after he fell behind

Harris experienced a two-month surge in popularity and fundraising following President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the reelection race, which initially boosted her standings considerably.

But since then the race has tightened to become one of the closest in history.  

James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners said the poll was good news for Trump’s chances of winning the White House. 

‘The movement under the surface suggests Trump is having a better closing moment in driving up enthusiasm than Harris is, and undecideds and third-party candidate supporters have also broken for Trump in the last month,’ he said. 

‘He has also seen improvement among voters of every race, and leads in all age groups apart from 18–29-year-olds.’

The full results show third-party candidates making little headway.

Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and Libertarian Chase Oliver are all on just one percent.

Independent Cornel West’s share is rounded to zero percent.   

Vice President Kamala Harris and Former President Donald Trump are locked in a tight race

Vice President Kamala Harris and Former President Donald Trump are locked in a tight race

Perhaps the starkest finding is the gender mismatch in the contest. 

‘One thing makes this election stand out from others: When voters go to the polls next week, they will be sharply divided on their gender, with women being more likely to vote for Harris and men more likely to vote for Trump,’ said Johnson.

Harris can count on the support of 54 percent of women, while Trump has the backing of 40 percent.

Men break 59 to 37 for Trump.

After wobbles on both sides, the two candidates can now rely on their own party support. Harris is backed by 94 percent of Democrats; Trump is backed by 93 percent of Republicans.

And there is more good news for Trump as his campaign works to turn out the vote. Enthusiasm for the former president is higher (74 percent say they are very enthusiastic for him) than Harris (67).

A month ago, Harris led Trump by five points. 

But all is not lost for Harris. Trump’s lead is powered by a 43-point advantage among rural voters. Harris remains on course to win the suburbs, where our poll shows she has a two-point lead. 

Trump wore a waste collector's high vis vest at his Wisconsin rally on Wednesday evening, as he tries to keep comments about his supporters being 'garbage' in the headlines

Trump wore a waste collector’s high vis vest at his Wisconsin rally on Wednesday evening, as he tries to keep comments about his supporters being ‘garbage’ in the headlines

Johnson said that was a ‘ray of light’ for Harris.

‘That could mean Trump’s vote is now looking more inefficiently spread,’ he said. ‘Things could look much closer in the swing states if Harris can drive home her votes in suburban areas.’

Trump’s danger, he explained, was that he could be racking up high vote counts in red states, while the distribution of Harris supporters might help her win swing states. 

The two candidates are now crisscrossing the states that will decide the outcome in the electoral college.

Both had struggled with negative headlines in the final week. 

Trump launched his closing message on Sunday night at Madison Square Garden in New York, an event that was overshadowed by a comedian making disparaging remarks about Puerto Rico.

And Harris made her final pitch near the White House, but was upstaged by President Joe Biden apparently calling Trump supporters ‘garbage’ although his words were unclear. 

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