In a striking turn of events, recent polls indicate Donald Trump is either closing the gap or widening his lead against Kamala Harris, significantly boosting his prospects in the upcoming November presidential election. According to the latest DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners election model, Trump has surged to his most commanding lead yet.
The model now suggests Trump prevails in 65.9 percent of the simulated election scenarios, marking a notable increase from the previous evaluation conducted last Friday, where his chances stood at 61.4 percent.
As Election Day looms just two weeks away, these developments imply that time is running short for Vice President Harris. The momentum appears to have shifted in favor of Trump, a dramatic shift from August when Harris, newly appointed as the Democratic candidate, briefly led in the polls and amassed substantial campaign funds following President Joe Biden’s unexpected decision to withdraw from the race.
The new calculation reflects three new national polls that all show Trump taking a lead over Harris, reducing her longstanding lead in nationwide averages. Analysts believe Harris will need a decisive win in the national vote numbers to have any chance of prevailing in the swing states that will decide who racks up more Electoral College votes and wins the White House.
As things stand, the model suggests the most likely outcome is for Trump to sweep the seven battlegrounds, taking the Electoral College by 312 to 226. But the numbers come with a caveat. Harris is not out of the race.
With a 34 percent frequency of winning in the simulations the contest remains tight, and the model delivers a final verdict that the election ‘leans Trump,’ rather than anything more decisive. The forecast comes from crunching all the latest polling data, along with election results from the past 80 years plus economic statistics.
Callum Hunter, data scientist at J.L. Partners, said the national polls moving to Trump had made the biggest difference since last week. ‘Less than one percent of all Democrat victories come about as a result of them losing the popular vote and so it is paramount for Harris to win the popular vote if she wants to win the Electoral College,’ he wrote in his briefing Monday.
‘The latest set of polls are beginning to weaken the assumption that Harris would win the popular vote.’ As that probability weakens, he added, Trump’s odds of an Electoral College victory improve. ‘There has also been a long term trend of the national polling gap between Harris and Trump closing. A month ago Harris led Trump by around 3.5 points in the national polls, currently she leads by around 1.5 points. ‘The electoral fog is lifting and it seems to be revealing a likely Trump win.
‘We’ve yet to see the impact of Trump’s McDonald’s visit this weekend. A visit that went off very well for Trump…’ Trump spent the weekend in the pivotal battleground state of Pennsylvania , serving fries to McDonald’s customers and attending a Pittsburgh Steelers game. On Monday, he flew to Asheville, North Carolina, to see the Hurricane Helene-ravaged city for himself. Harris was in Philadelphia on Monday with Republican Liz Cheney, making an appeal to disaffected conservative voters.
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