BILLS at BRONCOS
Saturday, 4:30 p.m., Broncos by 1, 47
HANK’S HONEYS: Josh Allen is on a determined path. Despite battling injuries, he showcased resilience by orchestrating a crucial fourth-quarter drive against a formidable Jaguars defense, particularly their strong front line. While the Broncos boast an impressive defense on paper, with a league-leading sack count, their weaknesses were exposed by quarterbacks like Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love, and even Jaxson Dart. Although the Buffalo receiving corps is currently lacking depth, Allen can exploit the gaps in Denver’s defense, especially outside of Patrick Surtain’s coverage, with Buffalo’s talented tight ends being a key asset to watch.
Bo Nix’s inconsistency presents a challenge against a Bills pass defense that is steadily improving. Nix struggles against varied pre-snap defensive looks, a tactic Sean McDermott effectively employed against Lawrence. Denver often relies on gaining yards after the catch, but the Bills excel in defending this aspect of the game. Despite Buffalo’s run defense being subpar, RJ Harvey might not be able to capitalize on any potential mismatches. With playoff experience heavily skewed in Buffalo’s favor, the Broncos have yet to demonstrate their mettle against top-tier opponents, with their convincing victories primarily coming against lower-ranked teams. Denver’s strategy will likely hinge on controlling the clock to limit Allen’s time on the field, hence the suggestion to go under the total score.
49ERS at SEAHAWKS
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bills and the under.
Saturday, 8 p.m., Seahawks by 7 ½, 46
HANK’S HONEYS: This matchup leans towards a low-scoring affair. Seattle’s defense stands as the best in the NFC, and their offensive strategy typically involves grinding out plays. The 49ers’ defensive approach also focuses on containment, further suggesting a game that won’t see high scores. These teams face each other for the second time in three weeks, following a 13-3 Seahawks victory in the Week 18 clash that determined the NFC West title and the top playoff seed. This prior encounter plays to Kyle Shanahan’s advantage, as he will likely make strategic adjustments based on that game tape.
TEXANS at PATRIOTS
3 p.m., Pats by 2 ½, 41
HANK’S HONEYS: The Texans’ defense is elite. The Steelers didn’t stand a chance against them. But that was largely because Aaron Rodgers can’t move. Houston’s edge rushers just met at the target. Drake Maye can move and he has a big edge on CJ Stroud. Granted, Stroud made some big plays in Pittsburgh but he was a turnover machine earlier and looked panicked under pressure. The Pats’ front dominated in the pits last week. Granted, the Chargers’ O-line is porous but the Texans have had protection issues as well. It’s also looking as though Stroud’s most reliable receiver, Nico Collins, will be sidelined with a concussion. Woody Marks could have success running inside against a D-line that’s more about penetration than being a wall. Maye will have to play better than he did last week, especially because the Texans neutralize running attacks. But he should after getting through his first playoff start. In all probability, the Patriots won’t have to light up the scoreboard. It might take just a few big plays down the field and that is where Maye displayed his MVP credentials all season. It’s going to be a drag-out affair. We like that this line is under a field goal. If the hook was on the other side, we’d lean Texans.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Patriots and the under.
RAMS at BEARS
6:30 p.m., Rams by 3 ½, 51
HANK’S HONEYS: A lot depends on Matthew Stafford’s finger. All Rams bets went down the tubes last week after he hit it on a teammate’s helmet. X-rays were negative and he says it’s fine but we shall see. Then there is the expected 10-degree temperatures. Stafford has played his entire career either indoors in Detroit or in the warmth of LA. He has not been a good bad weather QB. However, Stafford has excelled when he has a clean pocket and the Bears do not have a pass rush. In general, Chicago’s D has been all about creating turnovers. They aren’t great at any level. As for the Bears’ O, can their all-important run game prosper against this Rams’ front? The Rams are excellent at keeping runners from getting to the edges. They can also bring in a fifth D-lineman, something that has given the Bears issues. The Rams’ front is disruptive so Caleb Williams is going to have to make some off-schedule plays like the game-saving fourth and 10 he converted last week. The Rams’ secondary has been exploited over the last month or so. Quentin Lake had a rough time in his first game back from injury last week and he’ll probably be matched up against TE Colston Loveland, Williams’ biggest third down threat. The Bears could be having one of those magical seasons . . . a team of destiny. Given that both of their home losses have been by three points, we’ll take the hook.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bears and the under.
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WEEK’S BEST BET: Bills. Josh beats Bo.
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PLAYOFF RECORD
LAST WEEK: 1-5, over/under 5-1
BEST BETS: 1-0
