Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass received a significant Election Day lift in the prediction markets, with her chances of retaining City Hall surging from 57.6% to 75% on Kalshi in roughly three hours.
Bass’s reelection odds climbed by more than 21 percentage points between 1 p.m. and 4:30 p.m. Tuesday, marking a dramatic afternoon shift in a contest that recent polling had shown to be deadlocked.
The incumbent is facing Socialist challenger Nithya Raman in a closely watched race. Polling conducted in late October placed both candidates at 40%, while 20% of voters remained undecided.
The abrupt market movement came as traders tracked Election Day turnout, with participation data from individual precincts potentially providing early clues about which candidate was building momentum.
A strong showing in liberal neighborhoods could help Raman, while higher turnout among older and more establishment-oriented voters could work in Bass’s favor.
With the race so narrowly balanced, even limited new information can produce sharp swings in prediction-market contracts.
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Even so, the available data do not explain what drove Bass’s afternoon surge. Kalshi’s 79% figure represents a probability implied by market activity, not a confirmation that she has won.
Los Angeles County began sending ballots to active registered voters on Oct. 5. Hundreds of vote centers opened at 7 a.m. Tuesday and were scheduled to remain open until 8 p.m. Pacific time.
Federal election monitors were deployed in the Los Angeles area as voters cast their ballots, leading California to send its own group of observers to monitor the federal personnel.
The U.S. Justice Department said the deployment is part of a nationwide effort to protect election integrity. Governor Gavin Newsom and Bass, however, criticized the move as an effort to intimidate voters.
Initial results are expected after the polls close, but the tight race could delay a definitive result for days or even weeks.
