WHEN it rains, it pours… and Sir Keir Starmer cannot catch a break.
A poll today shows Labour is on course for a thumping at the next election at the hands of Nigel Farage.
The YouGov “gold-standard” MRP puts Reform on course to win the most seats on 271, while the PM’s current 412 would be more than halved to 178.
Sir Keir’s supporters point out there are still four years to go until the next election, giving plenty of time to turn things around.
But it is the fact his government has become so unpopular so soon after last year’s landslide that should really worry them.
A projected outcome map indicates that Reform is set to win across the entire country, taking over areas that were once Labour’s stronghold in the Red Wall and reducing the Conservatives to just 46 seats.
That so many Labour MPs – including a string of Cabinet Ministers – look to fall in a Farage wave spells trouble for Sir Keir.
Rebels who in good times would ordinarily remain loyal to the government could throw caution to the wind and vote how they like.
An insider from the party mentions: “Why would they bother to rebel on issues they care deeply about if they see themselves out of office in just four years anyway?”
It means the current revolt over benefits could be just the start of the PM’s troubles.
Such is the scale of the revolt over the government’s package of welfare savings that No10 has gone into crisis mode.
Ministers may be keeping calm in public but, like a duck’s feet furiously paddling below the surface, in private they are panicking.
I can disclose that Sir Keir’s schedule was being adjusted today to allow him to personally conduct calls to Labour dissenters once he returns from his NATO visit to Holland.
It is therefore perhaps a happy coincidence that his aides recently discovered the Downing Street vending machine has started stocking Red Bull.
They are going to need all their energy for a fraught few days that could decide the fate of Labour’s entire premiership.
The golden rule in politics is knowing how to count – so some numbers: around 120 Labour backbenchers are threatening to torpedo the government’s £5billion package in benefit cuts.
They say the squeeze on Personal Independence Payments specifically could push 250,000 claimants into poverty.
Combined with the opposition parties, they have marshalled enough troops to easily wipe out Sir Keir’s 156 majority when the vote happens in just five days’ time.
Defeat would strike a humiliating blow to Sir Keir’s authority and throw into doubt his ability to push through any serious reform.
If he cannot even convince his troops to get behind £5billion in welfare cuts, what hope does he have of reining in a sickness benefits bill set to balloon to £100billion within five years?
Downing Street has been left with two options: postpone the vote and buy time to redraw their proposals in a way that satisfies the rebels, despite the stench of weakness.
Or roll the dice and try to peel off as many mutineers as possible with the prospect of concessions.
For now, Starmer has chosen to go to the negotiating table, with both him and his deputy Angela Rayner publicly stressing the vote on Tuesday will happen.
Over the next few days the PM, his ministers and his whips will use a mix of olive branches, arm-twisting, and downright dark arts to smash the revolt.
A “bleeding stumps” pitch has seen rebels told that popular policies – like more cash for hospitals and school breakfast clubs – could all be at risk without welfare savings.
Meanwhile the more career-driven MPs are being gently warned that their hopes of a government job will evaporate if they walk through the wrong voting lobby.
The name of one ambitious newbie who has been excitably telling colleagues he wants “regime change” has worked its way back to No10.
He can kiss goodbye to a ministerial red box…
But even MPs loyal to Starmer – and there are still a lot of them – are not convinced anything other than serious concessions will pull the rebels back from the brink.
One member of the government tells me: “It’s hard to see how they can get this over line on the current voting timeline without some concessions to get some of the heavy hitters to change course.
“But it is unclear if that reality has yet fully landed with No10.”
Another supportive MP reckons a commitment on the floor of the House of Commons to soften the package later down the line is “the only way to keep the show on the road”.
One senior rebel insists they “can find a compromise” but Downing Street “need to take their fingers out of their ears”.
And the rebellion is not just contained to the backbenches. One MP swears that as many as five Parliamentary Private Secretaries – the first rung on the ministerial ladder – are willing to abstain in protest.
Whether Sir Keir wins the vote or not, this whole mess is symptomatic of a deeper problem running through his premiership: a growing sense he is not in control.
A string of embarrassing u-turns – from winter fuel cuts to the grooming gangs national inquiry – are a dangerous smoke signal to his MPs that he can be pushed around.
And worryingly to the government – much like the Brexit Spartans who hamstrung Theresa May’s government – the new Labour rebels are organised.
Experienced committee chairs on the soft left of the party have developed a sophisticated shadow whipping operation to marshal their troops.
That No10 was totally blindsided by the ambush on Monday night is testament to their tactics – and exposed a Downing Street intelligence operation sorely lacking.
Terrified of party whips getting wind, the ringleaders recruited disgruntled MPs to their cause through snatched conversations in corridors and on the Commons terrace.
As one MP warns: “They have spreadsheets and they can count. This whole saga has given them intel on how to whip”.
And you can bet that fighting benefits cuts will not be their only rallying cause over the next four years.
Axing the two-child benefit cap – on which the PM has already shown ankle at the mere flickers of backbench grumblings – will be next.
The danger for Sir Keir now is spiralling into a doom loop of chaos, which breeds unpopularity, which breeds more chaos, which breeds more unpopularity.
