Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Thursday that the United States is seeking to weaken Canada in order to “own us,” as he urged oil-rich Alberta voters to reject a move toward independence in Monday’s referendum.
The ballot does not ask Albertans to vote directly on separation. Instead, the province—which holds the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserves—will decide whether to instruct its government to begin the legal steps that could eventually lead to an independence referendum.
“This referendum comes at the worst possible time,” Carney told a large pro-Canada gathering in Calgary. “The world has become more dangerous and divided. Some outside our borders are working to break us so they can own us.”
Carney did not name the United States or President Donald Trump in that portion of his remarks, although he has referred to both in similar speeches. His warning came amid Trump’s trade dispute with Canada and his repeated calls for Canada to become the 51st U.S. state. Carney has said Canada must build a stronger economy and reduce its reliance on its southern neighbor.
The prime minister also cautioned Albertans against treating the vote as a symbolic protest against Ottawa, arguing that a strong result could effectively determine the future of the separation movement.
“Don’t be fooled by the idea you can ‘send a message’ with your vote,” Carney said. “This is not poker. A vote against Canada is a dangerous bluff that will lead to years of deep division and great uncertainty.”
Carney makes the case for Canada
Carney, who was raised in Alberta, spent Thursday campaigning in Calgary before speaking at the Forever Canadian rally at the BMO Centre. His office said roughly 5,000 people attended, with some waiting more than two hours to clear security. Organizers plan to hold another rally with Carney in Edmonton on Friday.
Earlier in the day, Carney highlighted the Albertans who were born or educated elsewhere in Canada, as well as firefighters from across the country who travel to the province during wildfire emergencies. He cited both as evidence of the strong connections linking Alberta to the rest of Canada.
At the rally, Carney also recognized the deep frustrations that have driven Alberta’s growing sense of alienation.
“The frustrations that many Albertans have felt are real,” he said. Carney recalled that, during his youth, Ottawa made residents feel “like our resources weren’t our own.” More recently, he said, Alberta has been made to feel that its energy industry was “against the tides of history.”
A Liberal prime minister finds unlikely support
Carney’s appearance was notable for a Liberal prime minister. Alberta has spent decades clashing with Liberal governments in Ottawa, especially over energy policy and federal authority. Yet Carney has departed from several positions associated with his predecessor, Justin Trudeau, accelerating a proposed oil pipeline to the Pacific and promoting Canada as an energy superpower.
He presented the Pacific Link pipeline as proof that relations between Ottawa and Alberta are changing, saying the project would create more than 140,000 jobs and provide revenue for social programs.
The loudest response came when Carney said the pipeline would help Canada rely less on the United States.
“Careful, they might think that’s election interference. A little touchy,” Carney joked, prompting laughter from the crowd. He was referring to U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra’s warning that Canadian politicians should not interfere in U.S. midterm elections.
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Tanya Clemens, co-chair of the pro-independence group Let Alberta Decide, said Carney’s presence and political strength would make the campaign more difficult.
“He’s formidable for sure,” Clemens told The Associated Press.
Still, Clemens dismissed Carney’s agreements with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith as little more than “pinky promises,” saying they fail to address the province’s long-standing complaints about Ottawa.
Keith Wilson, another Let Alberta Decide leader, rejected Carney’s claim that international instability made the timing of the vote particularly dangerous.
“The worst timing for this, why? I don’t understand what’s the logic,” Wilson said. “Then it’s the best time for him to get back to Ottawa.”
Wilson said Carney should ask Parliament to repeal federal measures that separatists believe have damaged Alberta. He pointed specifically to authority that could be used to tax oil exports in retaliation against the United States. Wilson predicted Carney would ultimately impose such a tax, despite the prime minister’s insistence that using Canadian energy exports as leverage against Washington would serve no useful purpose.
“It’s one cabinet meeting away,” Wilson said. “He’s gonna do it. He has to do it.”
Smith, who called the vote but supports remaining in Canada, cast her ballot Wednesday and said she voted for Alberta to remain in Canada. She has said support for separation remains too high for her liking.
“Canada can still work,” Smith said after voting. “We just need to make some changes.”
Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University, called Carney’s popularity in Alberta “highly unusual” for a Liberal prime minister. He said Carney has also benefited from a “Trump effect,” as Trump’s trade war and 51st-state threats have rallied Canadians around their leader — even in Alberta.
From the political fringe to a provincewide vote
The referendum marks a remarkable rise for a cause long relegated to Alberta’s political fringes. After the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 Freedom Convoy, activists who had organized against vaccine mandates and other restrictions turned their attention to Alberta independence.
The convoy began over vaccine requirements for cross-border truckers but grew into a broader protest against pandemic restrictions, paralyzing downtown Ottawa and blocking major Canada-U.S. border crossings.
Clemens said COVID accelerated the movement by teaching people how to organize politically and become more involved in party politics. She said separatists also see Monday’s vote not simply as a step toward independence but as a way to give Alberta leverage in negotiations with Ottawa.
Advance voting runs through Saturday, with the final vote Monday.
