TUCSON, Ariz. — In light of the mysterious disappearance of Nancy Guthrie, alternative theories are surfacing beyond the initial kidnapping for ransom narrative. These theories were discussed by a former FBI agent and a medical doctor during a segment with Fox News Digital, following former FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino’s appearance on “Hannity” with Sean Hannity.
As the second supposed ransom deadline lapsed on Monday night without resolution, skepticism grew. The reported kidnappers had demanded $6 million in Bitcoin from the Guthrie family via media channels, prompting Bongino and others to question the legitimacy of the kidnapping scenario.
“While the kidnapping theory remains plausible, we must consider other possibilities,” Bongino explained. He proposed an alternative scenario, suggesting that what initially seemed like a kidnapping could have been a botched crime.
“Perhaps this began as a simple burglary,” Bongino speculated. “Something went wrong, and the perpetrators, seeing an opportunity, decided to demand a ransom. This could be an unrelated crime, with individuals taking advantage of the situation to extort money.”
It’s important to note that Bongino clarified his theories were not presented in order of likelihood, but rather as potential alternatives to explore.
Bongino emphasized that he was not ranking his theories by plausibility when numbering them.
“The third possibility, again … and this is where I think you have to kind of think outside of the box, especially given some of the messaging that we’ve seen lately, is the possibility that there may have been some kind of maybe a medical emergency or something, and maybe this was not a kidnapping,” he said. “And I say that only because — and again, I’m not weighting these possibilities, we’re just — when you can’t find someone at a crime scene like this right away, within the first couple of days, you either have really good surgical type operators, or the story you’ve been told, or you may have believed may not be the story.”
Former Denver FBI agent Jonny Grusing agrees that there could be another explanation for Guthrie’s disappearance, which is now in its ninth day of investigation without any suspects being named.
FBI agents canvass homes near Nancy Guthrie’s home in Tucson on Friday, Feb. 6, 2026. Guthrie was last seen on Saturday night as an investigation into her disappearance continues. (Kat Ramirez for Fox News Digital)
“I’ve listened to other commentary and I probably side with them, of the other commentators, former FBI, that we don’t know for sure these demands are real for ransom,” he said.
“It could be a variety of reasons here, and we had multiple home invasions that I worked where the people going into the house were seeking money or jewelry or drugs or whatever, and it could be upscale neighborhoods or remote neighborhoods, and somebody’s in there, and then they have to deal with that somebody,” he said. “And I had a victim die, I had other ones fight, I had the perpetrators leave. Lots of bad things can happen if you enter a house and someone’s there, and you don’t suspect they’re going to be there.”
“So that could have happened, it’s there,” he said. “She was a victim of circumstance and being in a very nice neighborhood.”
“Another is that they were seeking someone else,” he said. “I’ve had that happen as well to where they think they have an address of someone, and it’s the wrong house, which is an awful situation because people have come to this house to do violence, and it is the wrong person and the violence happens anyway.”
An undated photo of Nancy Guthrie and Savannah Guthrie was provided by NBC in response to the disappearance of the 84-year-old mother of the “Today” show host. (Courtesy of NBC)
Grusing noted that the kidnapping for ransom theory poses challenges of its own, namely with an apparent lack of urgency on behalf of the alleged kidnappers, who sent their alleged demands to the media and not directly to the Guthrie family. He said in his experience, bad actors immediately contact the family of the victim and demand money, and there is often a swift and ongoing negotiation if the family can’t pay the sum demanded.
He also noted another oddity in the case. Nancy’s alleged abduction appeared to be very tactical and very well organized, he said, but that the alleged ransom attempts seem to be completely disorganized, as if they were not pre-planned.
Dr. Nicole Saphier is a Fox News contributor and radiologist. She backed Bongino’s theory that a medical emergency could have led to the disappearance, though she thinks the chances of that are slim.
According to the Guthrie family, Nancy does not have any known cognitive issues, but that doesn’t mean a rapid onset condition is out of the question.
A sign of solidarity from neighbors at Nancy Guthrie’s home on Thursday, Feb. 5, 2026, in Tucson, Ariz. (AP Photo/Caitlin O’Hara)
“You know, maybe she doesn’t have didn’t have a known cognitive issue, but perhaps maybe she, you know, had something as benign as an infection. This could send the elderly into states of disease, to be honest. So is it possible that she wandered off, sure,” said Saphier.
Saphier posited another theory, saying maybe perhaps the abduction wasn’t part of the plan, but became necessary if Nancy had a medical episode during a break-in.
“The thing that I had a concern about was, if there was an abduction, in the initial shock of them coming into the house, was that too much for her heart? And she actually had some sort of cardiac episode [or] heart attack or stroke right then and there, and she actually died there. And that’s why they spent so much time in the house, because that wasn’t part of the plan now that they needed to figure out what to do.”
