Share this @internewscast.com

Crime in the United States has declined significantly over the last year, according to new FBI data that contradicts a widespread national perception that law-breaking and violence are on the rise.

A Gallup poll released this month found that 77% of Americans believe crime rates are worsening, but they are mistaken, the new FBI data and other statistics show.

The FBI data, which compares crime rates in the third quarter of 2023 to the same period last year, found that violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3% to what would be its lowest level since 1961, according to criminologist Jeff Asher, who analyzed the FBI numbers.

Murder plummeted in the United States in 2023 at one of the fastest rates of decline ever recorded, Asher found, and every category of major crime except auto theft declined.

Yet 92% of Republicans, 78% of independents and 58% of Democrats believe crime is rising, the Gallup survey shows.

“I think we’ve been conditioned, and we have no way of countering the idea” that crime is rising,” Asher said. “It’s just an overwhelming number of news media stories and viral videos — I have to believe that social media is playing a role.”

The FBI’s quarterly numbers cover about 78% of the U.S. population and don’t give as full a picture as the more comprehensive annual report the FBI puts out once a year. But Asher said the quarterly reports in the past have hewed fairly close to the annual ones.

The most recent annual report, released in October, covered 94% of the country and found that violent crime in 2022 fell back to pre-pandemic levels, with murder dropping 6.1%.

Asher maintains a separate database of murder in big cities which found that murder is down 12.7 percent this year, after rising during the pandemic. 

Detroit is on pace to have the fewest murders since 1966, Asher found, while Baltimore and St Louis are on track to post the fewest murders in each city in nearly a decade. A few cities, including Memphis and Washington DC, are still seeing increases in their murder rates, but they are outliers.

FBI data doesn’t have a separate category for retail theft. It falls under “larceny,” which declined overall last year, according to the latest numbers. Retail theft is widely believed to have skyrocketed in some cities, and the industry says it is at “unprecedented” levels. But the data doesn’t necessarily support that thesis.

FBI numbers are not the only measure of crime. The annual Justice Department survey of criminal victimization in 2022 found that a lot of crime goes unreported, and that more people reported being victims of violent crime in 2022 than in 2021. But Asher has documented questions about that survey’s methodology. 

So why are Americans’ perceptions about crime so different from the apparent reality? Asher believes there is a measure of partisanship at work — Republicans are more ready to believe crime is increasing while Democrats hold the White House — but he largely chalks it up to media consumption.

“My neighbors never post on NextDoor how many thousands of packages they successfully receive,” he wrote recently. “Only video of the one that randomly got swiped.”

Asher and other analysts say the natural tendency of the news media to highlight disturbing crime stories — and the tendency of those stories to go viral on social media — presents a false but persuasive picture.

Videos of flash mobs on shop lifting sprees or carjackings in broad day light are more ubiquitous, even if those crimes are not.

“These outlier incidents become the glue people rely on when guesstimating whether crime is up or down,” he wrote.

Share this @internewscast.com
You May Also Like
How inflatable costumes ballooned at anti-Trump rallies due to a Portland protester's frog outfit

Inflatable Costumes Take Center Stage at Anti-Trump Rallies, Inspired by Portland Protester’s Frog Attire

In Portland, Oregon, a unique form of protest unfolded when Seth Todd…
Tropical Storm Melissa is now forecast to become a major hurricane as it trends toward a concerning track

Tropical Storm Melissa Predicted to Intensify into a Major Hurricane, Following a Worrisome Path

Tropical Storm Melissa is slowly making its way across the Caribbean Sea,…
California police officer killed in crash on Interstate 8

Tragic Interstate 8 Collision Claims Life of California Police Officer

The La Mesa community is grappling with the tragic loss of Officer…
Carlson and Greene Outline Five Pillars for America’s Renewal

Carlson and Greene Unveil Five Key Strategies for Revitalizing America

In their explosive discussion, journalist Tucker Carlson and Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor…
Charlotte man charged with Iryna Zarutska’s killing could face death penalty

Charlotte Resident Faces Potential Death Penalty in Connection with Iryna Zarutska’s Murder

The heart-wrenching case of Iryna Zarutska’s murder has taken a significant legal…
Melodee Buzzard: Timeline of investigation into missing 9-year-old girl from Santa Barbara, California

Investigative Timeline: The Disappearance of 9-Year-Old Melodee Buzzard from Santa Barbara, California

The Federal Bureau of Investigation has stepped in to assist in the…
Strike averted: Musicians' union reaches tentative deal with Broadway league

Musicians’ Union and Broadway League Reach Tentative Agreement, Preventing Strike

NEW YORK — Broadway musicians have successfully brokered a preliminary deal with…
Vladimir Kramnik: Former world chess champion may face discipline for treatment of Daniel Naroditsky

Controversy Strikes: Vladimir Kramnik’s Conduct Under Scrutiny in Daniel Naroditsky Dispute

On Wednesday, the global chess governing authority announced it is contemplating disciplinary…
US chess grandmaster’s mom speaks out as questions remain over death, Russian rival faces probe

Mother of U.S. Chess Grandmaster Breaks Silence Amid Ongoing Investigation into Russian Rival Following Son’s Mysterious Death

In a heartfelt revelation, the mother of Daniel Naroditsky, a former grandmaster…
Five Points businesses recovering after break-ins

Five Points Businesses Rebound Following Recent Break-Ins

Pattaya Thai is among several businesses in Five Points grappling with the…
Former mayor stabbed outside blue state business, suspect with multiple arrests charged

Ex-Mayor Stabbed Outside Business in Blue State: Repeat Offender Charged in High-Profile Incident

A former Massachusetts mayor sustained injuries from a stabbing incident outside his…
NYC mayoral candidates clash bitterly during final debate

Final NYC Mayoral Debate Sparks Heated Exchanges Among Candidates

NEW YORK (AP) — During the heated final debate in New York…