For now, California’s billionaires appear to have the upper hand.
California voters are narrowly divided over a proposed wealth tax on billionaires that would help offset federal health care cuts. A new Citrin Center-Politico poll found that 46% of likely voters support the measure, while 43% oppose it.
Proposition 40 must win a majority vote to raise as much as $100 billion through a one-time 5% tax on California residents whose assets exceeded $1 billion at the beginning of 2026. With only 15 days remaining before the election, the measure may need a late boost from the roughly 10% of likely voters who remain undecided.
A billionaire “boys’ club” is pouring money into the effort to block the tax, with Google co-founder Sergey Brin leading the campaign after contributing more than $100 million of his own fortune.
Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt—who was once angered by what he viewed as a lack of focus among billionaires fighting the wealth tax—and cryptocurrency billionaire Chris Larsen have also contributed eight-figure sums.
Another poll, conducted last month by the Public Policy Institute, showed the billionaire tax with a narrow lead: 52% of likely voters said they supported it.
Opponents have raised well over $300 million to defeat Prop. 40 and back other state ballot measures, including Propositions 41 and 42, which are intended to create barriers to wealth taxes.
If Prop. 42 wins more votes than Prop. 40 and both measures pass, it would supersede the billionaire tax.
By contrast, the union sponsoring the tax, Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West, has raised and spent about $40 million on the campaign. That would represent a formidable war chest in most statewide ballot fights, but Prop. 40 is aimed at some of the world’s wealthiest people.
SEIU-UHW’s campaign has also faced allegations involving its president, Dave Regan. He was accused of pressuring fellow labor leaders to endorse the measure and of threatening and intimidating women within the union.
Labor investigations substantiated several allegations, including a claim that Regan physically assaulted former SEIU executive Courtni Pugh in 2009. Pugh is now working with the billionaire-backed campaign opposing Prop. 40.
Regan and the union denied wrongdoing, describing the accusations as a politically motivated attack connected to the campaign.
ALSO READ: Victoria’s Secret Models Debut Wrinkle-Free Looks at 2026 Show
Suzanne Jimenez, SEIU-UHW’s chief of staff, said the poll’s finding that support for the billionaire tax exceeded opposition—even though it remained below the 50% threshold—demonstrated that “Prop. 40 is winning” and that “California voters would rather keep emergency rooms open than give even more tax breaks to billionaires.”
“Any sober and objective reading of this poll shows it as good news for the billionaire tax—because the 11% undecided will break in favor of prop 40,” Jimenez said in a statement to The California Post. “It is an incredible and powerful statement that despite Prop 40 supporters being outspent by hundreds of millions of dollars, every single independent poll in this campaign has shown the billionaire tax prevailing.”
She added, “It’s time for billionaires to pay their fair share and this poll shows once again that California voters want veterans, children, and seniors to have access to healthcare more than they want billionaires to have access to more yachts and mansions.”
Gov. Gavin Newsom and Democrat Xavier Becerra, his likely successor, have both opposed the proposed wealth tax. They argue that such a policy should be enacted at the national level.
A source supporting the campaign against Prop. 40 told The California Post that internal polling indicates the measure could be in even greater trouble. The source cited expectations of low voter turnout and other findings suggesting voters are not connecting with the proposal.
The Citrin-Politico survey also found significant differences in attitudes toward the billionaire tax by age and gender.
Younger voters were substantially more supportive of taxing the ultrawealthy. The measure was backed by 64% of likely voters ages 18 to 29 and 62% of those between 30 and 44. Among voters 65 and older, support fell to 28%.
Women supported the wealth tax by a 49% to 39% margin, while men leaned against it, with 47% opposed and 43% in favor.
Two-thirds of registered voters lacked confidence that the supposedly one-time tax would stay that way. And 56% found the warning that it could eventually expand beyond billionaires a convincing reason to vote no.
However, 58% were convinced that billionaires could afford to contribute more without raising other Californians’ taxes, while 57% found the promise of funding health care and other public services persuasive.
The threat of a billionaire exodus carving into state revenue was not as persuasive, as just 44% found that to be a compelling argument against the tax, while 51% did not.
The online voter survey was conducted Oct. 9-14 with the Citrin Center at UC Berkeley and Politico. It included 1,149 registered voters, including 909 likely voters. The report provided no margin of error.
Mail-in ballots have already gone out to California voters and the election will conclude Nov. 3.
