North Korea said it launched an intermediate-range strategic missile on Oct. 3, prompting fresh concern that weapons of this class could threaten Guam, parts of Alaska and Japan. The test came as President Donald Trump works to reopen diplomatic channels with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
North Korean state media reported that Kim personally supervised the exercise. Sydney Seiler, a former U.S. Forces Korea analyst, told News Outlet that the missile’s potential reach gives the launch significance well beyond the Korean Peninsula.
Reuters, citing North Korea’s state-run Korean Central News Agency, reported that Pyongyang characterized the weapon as part of a “hypersonic strategic weapon system.” The missile traveled roughly 1,000 kilometers, or 621 miles, before landing in waters off North Korea’s eastern coast.
Guam is a key U.S. military hub in the western Pacific. The American territory is home to major facilities, including Andersen Air Force Base and Naval Base Guam.
North Korea carries out a drill involving an intermediate-range strategic missile. (North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency. KCNA via REUTERS)
“What is interesting about an IRBM launch — an intermediate-range ballistic missile that flies around 3,000 to 5,000 kilometers — is that it brings Guam, parts of Alaska, and Japan into range of North Korea,” said Seiler, a former National Intelligence Council official specializing in North Korea. He cautioned, however, against treating the test as a direct reaction to Trump.
Developing and preparing an intermediate-range ballistic missile system takes considerable time, Seiler said, making it unlikely that the launch was driven mainly by the president’s statements or actions in the preceding days.
Several hours after the missile test, Trump highlighted his relationship with Kim during a rally in Vandalia, Ohio.
“I get along great with Kim Jong Un. Isn’t it nice to get along with the leaders of massive nuclear nations?” Trump said.
Trump also pointed to North Korea’s nuclear arsenal as a reason to keep diplomatic communication open. “When someone has 112 nuclear missiles, it is better to get along with them,” he said.
“North Korea simply isn’t interested in talking right now, so they have no incentive not to launch,” Seiler said, referring to the missile test and Trump’s remarks.
“The fact that they’re doing these missile launches amid a diplomatic effort by President Trump to try to re-engage the North, you have to see them only as somewhat related.”
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un stands with President Donald Trump at the Military Demarcation Line separating North and South Korea in the Joint Security Area of Panmunjom on June 30, 2019. (Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images)
The latest test followed another North Korean weapons launch on Sept. 20, when two short-range ballistic missiles were fired from the Wonsan area, according to reports.
On Oct. 3, officials from the United States, South Korea and Japan condemned North Korea’s ballistic missile activity, saying the launches violate U.N. Security Council resolutions and pose a threat to regional and global security.
Seiler, now a nonresident senior adviser to the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Pyongyang’s actions should be viewed as part of a broader strategy rather than solely through the lens of its dealings with the Trump administration.
The launch occurred “within the larger context of a current absolute stand down on dialogue with South Korea and repeated rejections of overtures from the United States for dialogue,” Seiler said.
At the same time, he noted that North Korea has avoided certain escalatory steps during Trump’s term. “We haven’t seen an ICBM launch for almost two years now,” Seiler said.
North Korean state media said Kim Jong Un personally watched the missile test, which was directed toward the Sea of Japan, also known as the East Sea. (North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency. KCNA via REUTERS)
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Seiler cautioned that this limited restraint should not be interpreted as evidence that Pyongyang is prepared to give up its nuclear weapons or missile development programs.
“For North Korea, their overall diplomatic strategy is to condition the world to accept them for who they are: a non-denuclearizing, missile-launching, occasionally provoking, and rhetorically coercive state,” Seiler said.
“As time goes on, their goal is for us to give up any hope of denuclearization or structural change, which is consistent with them establishing a baseline: whether diplomacy unfolds or not, they will continue to develop and demonstrate missile technology.”
Meanwhile, Trump has continued to emphasize his relationship with Kim while signaling a wish to revive the personal diplomacy of his first term.
Trump and Kim held summits in Singapore in 2018 and Hanoi in 2019 before meeting at Panmunjom in the Korean Demilitarized Zone later that year, when Trump crossed into North Korea.
A handout photo provided by Dong-A Ilbo of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and President Donald Trump attend a meeting on the south side of the demilitarized zone (DMZ) separating the South and North Korea on June 30, 2019, in Panmunjom, South Korea. (Dong-A Ilbo via Getty Images/Getty Images)
“The president has shown persistent commitment to engaging North Korea in dialogue — most recently suggesting he is open to a phone call,” Seiler said.
“While a call might not yield immediate progress on denuclearization, it contributes to tension reduction and helps establish a direct relationship necessary for future crisis management on the peninsula.”
Complicating Washington’s strategy, the expert said, is Kim’s alignment with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
North Korea has provided troops and military equipment to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, reducing Kim’s incentive to engage with the U.S., according to Seiler.
“Right now, Kim Jong Un, particularly given his emerging relationship with Vladimir Putin and everything he’s getting out of the relationship with Russia right now, simply doesn’t need to talk to the United States,” Seiler said.
Former NBA star Dennis Rodman’s unusual relationship with Kim also perhaps offers Trump another potential connection to the North Korean leader. Rodman has also made multiple trips to North Korea and met personally with Kim.
Rodman joined Trump at a Peterbilt plant in Denton, Texas, on Oct. 1 before traveling with the president toward a rally in Durant, Oklahoma.
Dennis Rodman apparently sees big things on the horizon for President Trump as far as North Korea is concerned. (AP/Getty)
Asked in Texas whether he was using Rodman, who has personally met Kim, to help broker peace with Pyongyang, Trump emphasized his own relationship with the North Korean leader.
“As long as I’m here, you’re not gonna have any problems. Somebody else comes, you’re gonna have some big problems,” Trump said.
Trump also highlighted Rodman’s personal connection to Kim, saying: “When I wanted to get to know Kim Jong Un when we were having a problem—Kim Jong Un and I get along—but the one who knew him best was Dennis Rodman.”
“Dennis Rodman has a very interesting perspective in that he was able to interact with Kim Jong Un over a number of visits and get to know him personally, to develop some rapport without any diplomatic baggage,” Seiler said.
“He may be offering President Trump insights into Kim Jong Un’s personality, values, and potential approaches, but, you know, as I think Dennis Rodman’s representatives have said, he is still a long way off from getting airplane tickets.”
