Republican Bruce Blakeman has narrowed Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul’s lead to single digits in New York’s gubernatorial race, according to a new poll of likely voters conducted six weeks before the Nov. 3 election.
The Siena University survey indicates Blakeman is in a stronger position to mount an upset than Republican Lee Zeldin was at a comparable point in the 2022 campaign.
Hochul remains ahead, leading Blakeman 50% to 41% among likely voters, the poll found.
“At this time four years ago, Hochul led Lee Zeldin by 17 points, 54%-37%, before going on to win by six points,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said.
Hochul’s advantage has tightened since last month, when she led Blakeman 49% to 39%. Blakeman has gained two points overall, though he still faces a sizable gap with Election Day approaching.
Despite her lead, Hochul does not enjoy especially strong popularity among New York voters, even as she holds an advantage on several major issues.
Her favorability rating is evenly split, with 48% viewing the governor positively and an equal 48% expressing an unfavorable opinion.
Hochul’s job approval is similarly close to even: 48% approve of her performance, while 47% disapprove.
Blakeman faces a different obstacle: limited name recognition. With 41 days remaining before the election, nearly one-third of voters either do not know enough about him or have no opinion. Thirty-five percent view him favorably, compared with 34% who hold an unfavorable view.
The broader political climate in New York is also challenging for Hochul. Just 38% of respondents believe the state is headed in the right direction, while 49% say it is on the wrong track as she seeks a second four-year term.
National sentiment is even more negative. Only 28% of voters think the United States is moving in the right direction, while 66% say the country is headed the wrong way during President Trump’s midterm period.
“With six weeks until election day, voters offer good news to both Hochul and Blakeman. She now has the support of 50% of voters and saw her favorability and job approval ratings edge into positive territory. He now trails by single digits — well, nine points — in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than two-to-one,” Greenberg said.
Hochul also holds the advantage when voters are asked which candidate would perform better on several key issues.
On affordability, 49% said Hochul would do a better job of lowering costs, compared with 40% who chose Blakeman.
Hochul also leads on public safety, with 49% saying they trust her more to make New Yorkers safer, compared with 43% for Blakeman.
On immigration, 47% believe Hochul would better address undocumented immigrants, while 43% selected Blakeman.
The poll also found that President Trump’s support may be more damaging to Blakeman than New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s backing is to Hochul in the Empire State contest.
Roughly half of likely voters said Trump’s endorsement would hurt Blakeman’s campaign. That view was shared by 69% of Democrats, 49% of independents and 24% of Republicans.
By contrast, half of voters said Mamdani’s endorsement would benefit Hochul. That included 72% of Democrats, 40% of independents and 22% of Republicans.
Hochul’s campaign is spending millions on television advertising linking Blakeman to Trump. Blakeman and Republican groups, meanwhile, are airing ads portraying Hochul as being under Mamdani’s influence.
It’s Hochul’s race to lose, voters said.
While only half of likely voters support Hochul, two-thirds say they think she will win, including 37% of Republicans.
As expected, the incumbent has a huge lead in heavily Democratic New York City, where she is backed by 61% of voters to Blakeman’s 27%.
Voters are split in the downstate suburbs, where Hochul leads 48% to 46% as well as upstate, where Blakeman is ahead 47% to 44%.
Blakeman must break into Hochul’s support in the Big Apple or pull away from her upstate or in the suburbs, which includes his Long Island turf, where he serves as Nassau County executive.
Earlier surveys conducted by Republican-leaning pollsters during the summer claimed the race is even closer.
A Blakeman campaign survey released earlier this month claimed he trailed Hochul by just 4 points — 50% to 46%.
Another poll conducted for the pro-Blakeman “Strong and Safe” Super PAC last month also had the Republican trailing his rival by just 4 points — 47% to 43%.
And a survey by the firm co/efficient for the right-leaning, pro-Blakeman “Coalition to Protect Nassau Taxpayers” showed Hochul leading Blakeman by just 6 points — 47% to 41% — among likely voters.
This Siena University Poll was conducted September 11-17 among 1,144 likely voters questioned via live mobile and landline phone interviews and text. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
