Moscow is moving toward a final test of a new ballistic missile that could hit targets up to hundreds of miles away and potentially maneuver during flight, a capability that may further strain Ukraine’s already pressured air defenses, a defense analyst said Monday.
The assessment followed remarks from Ukrainian military officials, who said Russia could carry out the test in the coming months and might use live-fire strikes as part of the demonstration.
“Our estimates indicate that Russia intends to complete final tests of a new ballistic missile with a range of up to 800 kilometers by the end of this year,” Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy head of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence, said at a meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Interparliamentary Council, according to the Ukrainian outlet Ukrainska Pravda.
“If this 800-kilometer missile has more advanced maneuverability, for example, it will create even greater challenges for Ukraine because Kyiv will need more sophisticated interceptors to defeat it,” Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told News Outlet.
A Sarmat missile, also known as “Satan 2,” launches from an undisclosed location in Russia. (East2West)
Karako said such a weapon could make terminal maneuvers, weaving near the end of its flight so defenders cannot easily predict its destination or trajectory.
Another possibility, he added, is that Russia has found a way to manufacture an 800-kilometer missile more cheaply or produce it in significantly larger quantities.
Advances in precision-guided weapons, combined with the military’s broader move away from unguided munitions, could provide clues about the missile Russia is preparing to launch, Karako said.
Ukrainian firefighters battle a blaze at a market after a Russian missile strike in Kyiv. (AFP)
“Everyone is pursuing greater maneuverability,” Karako said. He noted that nearly every U.S. gravity bomb now includes some form of terminal guidance to improve precision.
He said the military world may soon reach a point where purely ballistic missiles are no longer common.
Instead, some weapons may follow a ballistic path for much of their flight before deploying maneuvering reentry vehicles or introducing other surprises during the final stage of an attack, he warned.
Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence has also said Russian forces could target areas in western Ukraine during the missile trials, turning the tests into a live-fire demonstration. Karako said that approach is routine during wartime development.
“This is a standard process: conduct extensive developmental testing, formally field the weapon and then carry out operational testing,” the analyst said.
Smoke rises over Kyiv after a Russian missile and drone attack hit several districts of the Ukrainian capital on July 8, 2026. (East2West news)
“There are all kinds of norms being broken, though, because it is, after all, wartime, and so it may well be the case that some of this stuff is tested — maybe not the first time — but some of the early tests are done, frankly, in the field in Ukraine,” he added.
The missile would, however, fall into a category once prohibited under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, Karako warned.
Signed by President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987, the INF Treaty required the United States and the Soviet Union to eliminate ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers (roughly 310 to 3,400 miles).
The United States withdrew from the treaty in 2019 amid alleged Russian violations.
“This range is one that was formerly prohibited by the INF Treaty that capped ballistic and cruise missiles at 500 kilometers in range,” Karako said.
“To some extent, you see Russia filling that gap, which is understandable and reasonable. Of course, they were violating the INF Treaty, which was why the United States got out of it.”
At the closing ceremony for the Geneva Summit, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and President Ronald Reagan sit near each other, on November 21, 1985. (Bettmann via Getty Images)
Missiles and artillery have been central to Russia’s campaign against Ukraine since the start of the war in 2022. Ukrainska Pravda reported Aug. 10, citing Ukrainian military intelligence, that production of Russia’s primary missile types had reached between 110% and 120% of monthly targets.
According to the Kyiv Independent, Russia fired at least 1,858 missiles of various types at Ukraine from the start of 2026 through Aug. 27.
“This is what’s hitting Ukraine on a daily and weekly basis. And so it’s in that broader context of that demand for standoffs of various kinds that you see new things pop up,” Karako said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte (not seen) hold a joint press conference in Kyiv, Ukraine, on June 3, 2026. (Danylo Antoniuk/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy highlighted the growing strain on air defenses in an interview with Deutsche Welle at a Canadian military base in North Bay Sept. 12.
“I want to have 100-120 [interceptor missiles] for these difficult months, especially the cold months,” Zelenskyy said. “We’ll see how many months this winter lasts — that is, these cold months: one, two, three. We don’t know. This is truly a major challenge.”
“It is the case that Russia really is on a wartime footing, and they really have mobilized their defense industrial base to be cranking these (missiles) out like sausages,” Karako said.
“There was a point in which everything was going to the front, everything was going to Ukraine.”
“There have been other reports more recently that suggest that Russia may be keeping some in reserve,” Karako added.
“There are lots of worries. If you’re in Poland, if you’re in Romania, if you’re in the Baltics, you’re worried about the Russians.”
