A sprawling, multi-day severe weather outbreak is pushing farther east on Tuesday, setting the stage for a highly volatile day across large parts of the eastern United States.
More than 116 million people are under some level of storm threat as the system raises the possibility of tornadoes, destructive wind gusts and sizable hail. Forecasters are also warning that torrential downpours could quickly escalate the danger of widespread flash flooding.
The unsettled weather began Monday, when storms swept through sections of the Upper Midwest during the afternoon and evening, triggering multiple tornado warnings and producing large hail and damaging winds.
Among the strongest reports came from Iowa, where Sheffield clocked a wind gust of 80 mph. In Michigan, the community of Watson was hit with hail measuring about 3 inches in diameter.
With the severe weather threat now moving east on Tuesday, the setup resembles Saturday’s impactful round of severe storms and flash flooding that struck parts of the same broader region.
The active weather pattern is creating a broad corridor of concern, with both severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible from the Midwest into the Northeast.
Meteorologists have raised the severe storm risk to Level 3 out of 5 for roughly 35 million people, while another 50 million are included in a Level 2 risk zone for Tuesday.
The opening wave of storms is forecast to take shape during the morning, extending from eastern Virginia through the Tri-State area and into southern New England.
While this will be the weaker of the two rounds, these storms will still be capable of producing gusty winds and torrential downpours.
Flash flooding is also possible—especially in urban areas—and could impact the morning commute.
“Significant flash flooding is also on the table, and we could be looking at more scenes of underwater roads and flooded subways,” the FOX Forecast Center said.
But more than anything, this initial wave will set the stage for the main event later in the day.
Severe Thunderstorm Threats
The primary line of thunderstorms will take shape by mid-morning along a pre-frontal trough ahead of the main cold front, extending from the upper Ohio Valley up into western New York.
These storms will gradually intensify as they track east through the afternoon, approaching the I-95 corridor during or just after the evening rush hour.
Swaths of damaging winds capable of knocking down trees will be the primary threat, though a few tornadoes are also possible.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, “The highest confidence for tornado development spans western New York down into eastern Pennsylvania.”
Hail is also likely in this region, extending back toward the middle Ohio Valley. However, the greatest risk for widespread, high-impact damaging winds will focus across the Mid-Atlantic states.
Flash Flooding Risk
Additionally, the growing potential for flash flooding is a major concern.
Tuesday’s setup is remarkably similar to last Saturday, which triggered significant flooding across New York City, New Jersey, and western Pennsylvania.
Atmospheric moisture will support peak rainfall rates as high as 2.5 inches per hour—nearly half the monthly average for July.
Heavy rain of this intensity is concerning on its own, but it will be falling on ground already saturated from Saturday’s downpours, the FOX Forecast Center highlights.
The main round of storms will reach the I-95 Megalopolis between 6 p.m. and 8 p.m. before pushing offshore by midnight.
Additionally, the same storms will also be capable of producing torrential rain, especially along the I-95 corridor from the Delmarva Peninsula into southern New England.
