Powerful thunderstorms are forecast to push into the East Coast just as Thursday evening commuters hit the roads, putting more than 32 million people along the busy Interstate 95 corridor at risk for flash flooding. The threat stretches from southern Connecticut through Virginia, covering major metro areas including New York City, Philadelphia and Baltimore.
With the severe weather threat moving east, forecasters have placed central and northern New Jersey and New York City under a level 3 out of 4 flash flood risk for Thursday afternoon. Heavy, fast-falling rain could arrive near the peak of the evening commute, raising concerns for flooded streets, travel delays and dangerous driving conditions.
The storm system is bringing more than just flooding concerns. A Tornado Watch is also in effect until 10 p.m. ET for more than 15 million people across portions of Delaware, the District of Columbia, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Virginia.
The line of storms is marching east after slamming areas of northeastern Arkansas and Kentucky late Wednesday, along with parts of Indiana, where communities are still recovering from last week’s deadly flooding.
By Wednesday afternoon, the severe weather had prompted Tornado Warnings in parts of southwestern Indiana as storms intensified across the region.
In southwestern Kentucky, more than 24,000 customers remained without electricity early Thursday. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center said it received a report of a possible tornado overnight Thursday in Graves County.
The severe weather is being driven by a cold front expected to track eastward out of the Ohio Valley through Thursday, with an area of low pressure following behind it.
The FOX Forecast Center said the front is likely to slow down and stall Thursday evening, stretching from the Northeast coast southward into the Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas.
Thunderstorms could produce rainfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour.
“A Flood Watch has now been extended farther to the north to include New York City and continues for most of New Jersey and far southeast Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia,” the FOX Forecast Center said.
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“Intense rain rates and downpours over already saturated soils, could lead to flooding as well as urbanized flooding in Philadelphia and New York City.”
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a widespread Level 2 out of 4 risk of flash flooding Thursday along the I-95 corridor from Connecticut to Virginia, while 17 million people across parts of New Jersey and New York City face a higher Level 3 out of 4 risk.
Additionally, an area from Central New Jersey through parts of northern North Carolina is at greatest risk of severe storms that could also produce damaging wind gusts. This includes Washington, D.C. and the entire Delmarva.
A tornado or two will be possible around Philadelphia and across parts of central New Jersey if supercell thunderstorms form.
Storms are expected to taper through the evening.
By Friday, the stalled cold front is expected to allow more storms to develop over the same areas in Virginia, North Carolina and into coastal Maryland, where rainfall rates of 2 inches per hour could be possible.
The Level 2 flood threat will shift south Friday, covering an area from southern Delmarva to parts of central South Carolina.
As we move into the weekend, the area of low pressure could develop, potentially pushing rainfall north into the Interstate 95 corridor, but nothing is guaranteed just yet, the FOX Forecast Center said.
Rainfall is still expected to fall through Saturday evening in the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.
Widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are possible from North Carolina heading north up into coastal New Jersey, with localized amounts of 3 to 5 inches possible.
If this forecast holds, the flash flood risk could be upgraded in the coming days, the FOX Forecast Center said.
The bullseye for the heaviest rain is also an area dealing with widespread severe to extreme drought across the Carolinas and Virginia.
